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Sunday, February 14, 2010

2010 Closer Profile: Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

By Todd Farino, www.thecloserreport.com

Team: Boston Red Sox
Projections: 39-2-1.99-1.10-76 (SV-WIN-ERA-WHIP-K)
Average Draft Position: 68rd pick
Recommended Draft Round: 6
Team Saves Projection: 46
Injury Risk/Stability: 9/10
Top 50 Rank: #9

Papelbon is your quintessential stud closer. Every year you know just about what output to expect from him. Likely 38-40 saves, ERA under 2.00, and 75+ strikeouts. He is one of the more consistent, healthy, and reliable closers and worth a high draft pick. The only thing that needs to be considered with Papelbon is the secret innings limit the team sets for him to avoid wearing out his arm with "tired arm". That limit is assumed to be 70 innings and does help in keeping him healthy and rested all year. I do know that he will never pitch three games in a row and likely only three out of five straight games.  However, the limit could impact your team near the end of the season where saves can mean life or death for your fantasy team.  Papelbon is a hard throwing closers who pounds the high strike zone to get the outs and keeps the hitters thinking with his average splitter.
The True Guru Strategy: His ADP has him at the right spot.  Personally I'd pass on him with better fantasy closers later in the draft, but if you want him round six is your spot.

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Monday, May 11, 2009

Papelbon strikes out 3 in a row for the save


Jonathan Papelbon felt good going into the 9th inning to shutdown the Rays, however it didn't go his way. He walked Iwamura to start the inning, and then promptly allowed him to get to 2B on a throwing error. Bartlett then singled to center, but Iwamura held at 2B to make sure it wasn't caught and they held him up at 3rd base.

Papelbon then struck out Carlso Pena, B.J. Upton, and Carl Crawford to lock up the game. He looked absolutely dominating against the last three batters throwing all fastballs and topping out at 97 MPH.

Papelbon said he had to go into "punchout mode", and he certainly did. Tonight showed us that he is clearly the best closer in baseball. At least for now.

If you are a Papelbon owner, the 2.00 WHIP tonight wasn't you wanted, but three strikeouts and a save was well worth it.

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Monday, May 4, 2009

Papelbon Pitches 5 Outs To A Rocky Save


Look for Saito to close for the Red Sox if they have a save chance against the Yankees. Papelbon threw 32 pitches to get five hard earned outs for the Red Sox.

The save was rocky, but not as bad as it looks. The 8th was fine, but in cold weather he had a 20+ minute wait for the 9th. After giving up a single to Brett Gardner that the shortstop would have thrown out most runners, he then hit Derek Jeter. He then struck out Mark Texeria, walked Swisher, and then struck out Cano.

Overall it was a great performance for Papelbon, and from a fantasy perspective it was huge. However, it will cost Papelbon owners the next day for Paps.

Expect Takashi Saito to get a save opportunity. this is not official, but I know how Francona handles Papelbon and he will not pitch if the Red Sox lead in the 9th tomorrow. That is probably obvious to anyone.

So if you have Saito on your bench, put him in.

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Sunday, April 26, 2009

Papelbon Pitches Second Game In A Row, Saito's Turn


Papelbon came into a tie game on Friday and closed out Saturday's game in a non-save situation. That spells out a frustrating week for Papelbon owners. Overall, in week 3 Papelbon made three appearances, none of them save opportunities.


What makes this worse for Papelbon owners? Count him out on Sunday. The Red Sox will not pitch Paps three days in a row, even against the Yankees. Papelbon will not record a save this week, but if you can pick up Saito he will get the save chance on Sunday.


Also note that Papelbon threw 47 pitched over the past two days, including 30 pitches Saturday. Do not count on Papelbon for Sunday.

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Sunday, April 19, 2009

Saito Comes In And Saves The Red Sox Game


Takashi Saito came in to save the game for the Red Sox. Terry Francona stuck to his rules of not pitching Papelbon three game sin a row.

He faced the middle of the Orioles lineup and gave up hits against Markakis and Huff before getting the next three out. He did give up a run and recorded one strikeout.

If your league offers holds, Saito is extremely valuable. He will get the call for saves whenever Papelbon has pitched two games in a row, so have him on hold for that as well.

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