Things I Know...

And some I think I know. I know the first three weeks aren’t even one tenth of the season. It is however enough to notice some trends. Here are a few of those trends that I believe will continue, some that will change soon, and how to make the best of the hot and cold starts. I know Aaron Hill is healthy again. He also just turned the magic age of 27. He will finish the year among the top seven 2nd baseman. Most of 2008 was lost to post concussion syndrome for Hill. His 2007 numbers were solid, and with the hot start to the season, I expect more of the same. He is still available in many leagues, so stop reading this and go get him. I know Jason Bartlett is on pace for 25 home runs. He will not hit 25 home runs. He will however steal 25 bases, hit .285, and score 85 runs. Even though he will primarily be hitting down in the lineup, it seems as if Joe Maddon will give Bartlett the green light to steal whenever he wants to. The top of the Rays lineup has plenty of pop to drive him in with regularity. Bartlett is still available in most leagues and is a solid SS or MI for any team that is already set in the power department. I know Francisco Liriano will not go 0-35. In three outings, the Twins have scored a total of three runs for Liriano. Of course he did not help his cause by letting up ten in fewer than 18 innings of work. His Ks are down a bit through three starts, but I am not that worried about Liriano. His last turn he shut down the suddenly potent Blue Jay offense and then watched the bullpen give up seven runs before he even sat down in the dugout. If you can find an owner who looks at his 0-3 record and a 5.09 ERA and wants to get rid of Liriano, be sure you are in line to give him an offer. I know Zach Greinke will allow a run this year. Anyone who can march into Texas and shut down that offense has figured this pitching thing out. With the shutout on Saturday, Greinke extended his scoreless innings streak to 34. This kid is the real deal. The former 1st round pick is proving that you can find fantasy value even on a bad team. Greinke is not available in most leagues and you may have to pay a high price to pry him away from another owner, but he will be well worth it in the end. I know Jimmy Rollins will finish the year hitting higher than .133, but will not sniff the 30/30 club again. The stolen bases will be there in the end, but I do not see him with more than 18 homers. Take a look back at his career numbers, his 30 home runs are certainly the outlier, not the norm. In the Philadelphia lineup he will still score a ton of runs and get on base enough to get 35-40 steals, but his slow start may lead to a frustrated owner willing to deal Rollins for less than true value. I know Chien-Ming Wang will finish with an ERA below 34.50, but higher than 4.50. Wang has always been a fantasy oddity; high win totals, decent ratios, but very low strikeout numbers. The Yankees seem to think that there is nothing different from last year before a foot injury ended Wang’s season, but his 4.83 WHIP seems to say otherwise. Unless you are in a Grand Canyon deep league with a big bench, Wang is expendable. I know Emilio Bonaficio had a great few days last week. His blazing start had owners running to their computers to grab this Florida flyer. He followed that up with a 3-24 stretch with 11 Ks. The Marlins have several other lead-off and 3rd base options if Bonaficio continues to struggle, and I expect him to do just that. If you were an owner who grabbed him, time is running out to get any trade value for him. I know Kevin Millwood plays for Texas… for now. Texas is a hitter’s haven in the summertime, and Millwood’s ERA since he moved to the Lone Star State has never dipped below 5. I would have more faith in Millwood if his home/road splits were better over the last few years, but he has done nothing to prove that these three starts are just an anomaly. Millwood is in a contract year and is off to a hot start, so it looks like he may be motivated to cash in this offseason. If Texas falls out of the AL West race, it would not surprise me if Millwood is dealt to a contender. I don’t trust any pitchers in the hot Texas sun, so I would stay away from Millwood unless he leaves town. I know Alexei Ramirez will homer and steal a base this season. He will not take major strides and build on his numbers from last year. Early in the season it looks like pitchers have adjusted to the Cuban Missile. He is a free swinger who is buried at the bottom of the White Sox lineup, which could quite possibly be the slowest lineup in the league. With basepath cloggers in front of him and the bottom of the order behind him I cannot see his RBI or runs totals going much higher than 70. He is nowhere near droppable status but I would consider dealing him if you can get good value for him. I know Edinson Volquez will strike out more hitters than he walks. The first two outings did not look good for Volquez. The third turn he did manage to shut down a weak hitting Houston team, but still sprinkled in five walks. His ERA was 4.60 after the All-Star break last year, and his WHIP was 1.46. Ask any Cubs fan, Dusty Baker doesn’t exactly do wonders for young pitchers. He is not too good with veterans if you ask Aaron Harang. His strikeout numbers will still be high, but I would be shocked to see an ERA lower than 4.00. Try and use his recent good turn to get some value for him in a trade market.

Opening Day Eye Openers

Finally, Finally. Bags of peanuts are falling from the sky, overpriced beer is going down like water, and the smell of hot dogs has never been sweeter. Opening Day is here, and all is right in the baseball world. In the fantasy baseball world however, there are a few things that have left some owners scratching their heads today. I will start with some happenings in the desert today. You will be hard pressed to find an Opening Day in the next 15 years that will have neither Upton in the starting line-up, but that was the case today. B.J. Upton is on the DL still feeling the effects of off season surgery. Justin, one of the most hyped preseason sleepers spent today on the bench in favor of the newly healthy Eric Byrnes. The Arizona juggling act doesn’t end there. Mark Reynolds, another projected starter, spent Monday on the bench in favor of Chad Tracy, who was penciled in as the starting 1st baseman. The biggest surprise in the D-Back line up was the presence of Tony Clark manning 1st base. Clark responded to the starting nod by hitting two homeruns. Tracy, who was shifted across the diamond, hit a game deciding homerun in the 7th. Manager Bob Melvin responded to questions about his line-up with this quote, “The only message we're sending is we're trying to run the best lineup out there on a particular day." He has also said that Reynolds and Upton will be in the starting line-up in game two, but with the solid first day from Tracy and Clark we could be looking at some platoons forming. Clark has not been an everyday player for years and figures to just get a start or two a week, so he should not be seen as a fantasy asset or a major threat to steal time from anyone. I would assume that Reynolds and Tracy will each see 140 plus starts at the corner infield spots. A healthy Eric Byrnes does throw a wrench in the D-Back outfield. With Byrnes, Justin Upton, Connor Jackson, and Chris Young, there are four starting outfielders for only three spots. If Byrnes can keep his hamstring healthy all year he could be a solid waiver wire grab, as he is one year removed from a 21HR/50SB year. From the above quote it looks as if Melvin will be employing an outfield by committee to start the season. All four outfielders are should be owned in 12 team mixed leagues, but you will just have to keep an eye on the line-up on a daily basis for the time being. The Washington Nationals may have a disgruntled outfielder in their dugout, and Elijah Dukes is one person I would not want mad at me. Dukes was another preseason breakout candidate that was not in the starting line-up. He was sat today after being informed that Austin Kearns has won the starting job. Kearns was once a top prospect in the Reds system that has never put his tools together for an extended period of time. Dukes has too much upside to be kept on the bench for long, I see him making his way back into the line-up soon so don’t cut bait on him just yet if you have the bench space. The cancelling of a game in Chicago due to snow when it never actually snowed was not the only confusing thing to go down in the Windy City. Those of you who spent a high pick on Alexei Ramirez probably will not be too happy to find out that he will be hitting 8th in the order to start the year. Most people thought he would be hitting 2nd or maybe even leading off depending on who won the CF job. Taking a look at his stats from last year you will see that he does not have the peripherals of a normal top of the order hitter. 18 walks in 480 at bats last year and an OBP of .317 do not scream lead off guy. It is not like he strikes out a lot, but he is a guy who has never met a pitch he doesn’t like. If you are going to hit high in the order for Ozzie Guillen, or any one for that matter, you need to take some pitches and draw some walks. I can see him making his way up to 6th or maybe even 5th in the line-up on some days, but I do not foresee much of an improvement over last years’ numbers. He is 27 after all. Keep in mind that Opening Day is just one day. It is just the one day where everyone thinks they are a contender. What happens today by no means will set anything in stone for the remainder of the year, but it can provide some insight into what the managers really thought of their teams in Spring Training. No need to panic and drop guys who went 0-4 or rush and grab the next Tuffy Rhodes who had a solid day one, but keep in mind… They all count now fellas, so put your game face on.