Buying and Selling the First Four Days

Buy! Sell! Buy! Sell! Money, Money, Money!!! Ok, so I just wanted to sneak in a reference from an obscure Tracy Morgan SNL skit, sue me. Tracy’s character was just pretending to be involved in the market; you on the other hand are involved. Fantasy Sports are not unlike the stock market in that the objective is to buy low and sell high. It’s awful early in the season to be talking about buying or selling your players, but let's take a look at a few things that have transpired thus far - at the four day mark - and whether or not you should buy or sell what you’ve seen so far. Let’s get down to business: BUY: Emilio Bonifacio. This guy has popped up on most peoples radar already (for a more in depth look at Emilio check out the column posted by my colleague, Scout Monkey, from earlier this week). Obviously he won’t get on base at a .600 clip all season and he has very little power but he has the starting job, he’s hitting leadoff and he’s lightning fast. 40 stolen bases and 90 runs is by no means out of the question. SELL: Tony Clark. This should go without saying; but don’t get overly excited about the two home runs Tony hit opening day. Clark has hit 30 homers four times in his career, but hasn’t hit more than 17 since 05, which was back when he was a full-time starter. Expect Clark to continue to back up Chad Tracy at first base and not play enough to be worth a roster spot, even in an NL only. BUY: Chris Carpenter. Carp had his first start Thursday and threw 7 innings of one hit ball allowing no earned runs. Naturally you can’t expect those numbers to hold up but the former Cy Young winner looks to be on his way back to his old form. I don’t think a mid-three ERA and 180k’s is out of the question, although injury is always a concern for Carpenter. SELL: Felipe Lopez’s power. I don’t mean to pick on the D-Bags…err… D-Backs, honestly. Lopez is a solid player and actually I think he will have a pretty decent year, but don’t get too roped in to the two homers he hit opening day. Felipe has only hit more than 11 homers once in his career (23 in ’05) and averages 14 home runs per 162 games played. He might give you .280 with 20 steals but don’t count on more than 12-15 home runs. BUY: Nelson Cruz. I absolutely love this kid! In only 104 games in Triple-A last year Cruz smashed 37 home runs, drove in 100, stole 24 bags and managed to hit .341 while doing it. Clearly, he’s "not in Kansas anymore" but the Rangers home park is a launching pad and make no mistake; Cruz is for real. Expect something in the .290-30-100 range with 10-15 steals for good measure. Did I mention I love this kid?! SELL: Carlos Quentin’s performance so far. After Carlos had his coming out party last year a lot of people felt it was a fluke. I am not one of those people. Granted, it’s too early on to be worrying about anyone this side of John Lackey, but even still I am not worried about Carlos. Last years 36 and 99 on August 25th might be a lot to ask, but expect to see him finish close to both of those numbers if he plays the full season. PCB Scout

Questions? Comments? Random nonsense? Email me at pcbscout(at)gmail.com