Drop It Like It's Hot!

There is a lot of debate over the strategy of dropping a category in your league. One side says that you want to compete in every category and should never concede any of them (at least until late in the season). The other side says, you probably are going to lose some category anyway, why not give one up to shore up your other ones. I am in the camp of dropping a category in one, and only one, situation - if your league has both saves and holds as categories. If your league has Saves and Holds, I say drop saves. Why? 4 reasons: 1) Because saves is such a finicky category. Too many closers do not keep their jobs all year. You may draft some closer and at he may end up as a holds guy or worse. Two recent articles have highlighted the danger of closers ('Forget Your Closers' by Scout Berardi and 'Draft Strategy: Heavy on Hitters' by Scout Rob). 2) There are always holds guys. While other teams are struggling to find closers, you can sit back and have your pick of guys who will get you some holds. 3) Discovered treasure. The pitchers you select to get you holds are also the ones that are generally in line to be closers if the present closer was to fail in someway. How nice is that? - A teams closer falls into your lap. Now you have excellent trade bait. You can trade him off for some player that helps your team and simply go pick up another holds guy. 4) One less thing to worry about. If holds and saves are categories, you are probably in a league that is 6x6 or greater. There is so much to consume that having one less category to stress over is pretty nice. Does this strategy work? Yes! I have used this strategy very effectively. In fact, this year I picked up Scott Downs (after the draft) and now will probably be able to trade him for a decent return since he will be getting some time at closer due to injuries to B.J. Ryan. It's already paying dividends! Every league is different. This may not work for you. Be sure to consider multiple strategies and find one that suits you best. Do not be afraid to experiment, mix things up, stick it to the man, drop it like it's hot. -Scout Monkey (scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Scout PDX Draft Critique

Everybody loves the draft it's at least 37% of the fun of playing fantasy sports, especially in the grandaddy of them all roto -baseball! Being a realist, as I like to describe myself, I thought I would go back over the choices I made and point out some high and some low-lights of the affair. It was a competitive draft and made for some intriguing decisions. My normal game plan is to focus on hitting in the early round and look for some good value pitchers. Sound familiar? It should, as it is the most common strategy proposed by most "experts". For me it is a twofold strategy, as it is a proven winner and risk reducer, as well it plays to my personal strength of identifying up and coming pitchers better than young hitters. So here goes. #6-Ryan Braun, I love outfielders, they do it all and they are replaceable, unlike a SS or 2b. Braun was my 5th on my cheatsheet, so with his 8th overall ADP I more or less knew he would fall to me. I had hoped Wright, 3rd on my list would slip to me, but even pre A-rod hip cyst he went 1st overall. We all know Braun is a stud so 'nuff said there. #15-Carlos Beltran, with and ADP of 19, was not likely to make it to the next round, and favoring him over studs such as Longoria, Berkman and Teixiera I pounced. Also, not being of the camp that position scarcity rules I had no problem going OF-OF to start my core. #26-Nick Markakis, the Greek God of everything rounds out my OF and brings more 5 category awesomeness to my squad. Fielder tempted me, but Markakis' SB won me over. #35-Cole Hammels is a young horse and we are just beginning to see the tip of his brilliance so I pounced. I had him rated as the 3rd best pitcher, behind Santana and Linecum. With his ADP of 46 I may have been able to get him or Webb in the next round, but there wasn't a player I liked better available. So I eschewed his ADP and happily took the anchor for my fleet of SP's. #46-Ichiro, was a category play and the decision between him and Alexei Ramirez, who went with the following pick, was one of the toughest of my draft. I think he can be a bit overrated, but in the middle of the 5th he seemed like a bargain. I also knew I could wait on Jose Lopez till much later and get 2008's 4th best 2b for a song. (yes, I am a Mariners, no I am not a homer in drafting and no I am not excited about Griffey Jr. (he should be called Sr. now) returning to the Safe, even if he did build it. #55-Chipper Jones, I had to get away from OF's and Chipper, who would rank as my 13th best player if he stays healthy which he won't, was a no brainer. Also knowing that I could draft a superb backup in Adrian Beltre in mid-teens solidified this pick for me. #66-Jaime Shields was my second choice here and my first, Francisco Liriano went one pick before me. Shields has ace potential and makes a solid deuce behind Hamels. Tempted by Brad Lidge and Derrek Lee here, but I think he was the best value of available players. I may have reached as his ADP is 84, but with Liriano gone it seemed like a no brainer. #75-Derrek Lee I was really stoked (with a caveat) to get Lee here. He is not going to steal double digit bases or put up MVP type numbers anymore, but he is going to hit for a good average with solid power numbers. If I were to do it again though, I would have taken Joey Votto here or in the next round. #86-Brad Lidge is one of my steals of the draft. I have him rated (tentatively) as the 2nd best closer this year and watched him slide and slide while lesser players were picked. I follow the common, but sage advice to wait on closers and this is a perfect example why it is a strategy that pays dividends. #95-Vernon Wells was a computer as I fiddled with my cheat sheets. My queue had emptied and the mercurial Wells was not my first or tenth choice here. I really wanted Felix Hernandez, oh well. #106-Zach Greinke, was another pick, like Shields, where I may have jumped the gun but after missing Felix I had to have him. Gallardo, who was gone with the next pick, has more potential and was tempting, but Greinke has his health and plenty of talent going for him. #115-Jhonny Peralta not only filled a desperate need, but was great value as I bailed on the top SS who were all picked earlier than I wanted. #126-Matt Cain is no Tim Linecum, but he still a great 4th starter and could potentially be my second best SP if pitches up to the level of his talent. #135-Matt Capps is one of my top sleeper closers. He could easily finish as a top ten fireman and you can get him late, maybe even later than I did. I did not want to chance it and end up with George Sherrill as my second RP #146-Jose Lopez was the 4th best 2B last year and should easily match and likely build on last years offensive success. A huge bargain at this point of the draft and I calculated his availability perfectly. #155-Adrian Beltre, see my Chipper Jones pick for details and yeah I knew I would get him #166-Johnny Cueto is this years Edison Volquez ie: forgotten sophomore pitcher with great stuff that can be had late.....real late. This pick had comedown to Cueto and Scherzer, and Scout Berardi made my decision for me. Thanks! #175-Mike Napoli won't hit homeruns at 2008's pace, but if he even plays remotely full time he will be a top 5 catcher, taken a dozen rounds after the top 4. The Big Unit was my other option here and I still debate trying to hold on one more round for Napoli.

I missed the draft! What now?

So I'm still getting the hang of exactly what they want from us here, but I know that doing a blog league is part of it. One thing that I didn't know was that the draft already happened, and I missed it. So I figured, let's turn this big ol' negative into a positive and let's blog about it. Missing the draft, unfortunately, happens to the best of us (and the best of us is me). So what happens when you get stuck with a team you didn't draft? Let's take a look at some of the stuff you can do to be proactive and keep up with the people who weren't lazy and/or stupid: Identify trade bait. Especially bigtime players on your team that you don't like, but that have value to other players. Alfonso Soriano is probably the number one player for me like this; he's a high-rated guy who puts up good numbers but I never believe in him. Putting a guy like this on the trading block can benefit you and someone else who might actually want him. I got him with the 29th pick. Would someone trade Carlos Quentin for him? Manny Ramirez? Maybe, maybe not. But it's good to put out those feelers, because at the end of the day it's a long season and you might as well set yourself up with players you can get behind. Identify your biggest weaknesses and pursue them aggressively. Normally it helps to have a bunch of pitchers and only a couple hitters on your bench. Naturally, autodraft will often give you a bench full of hitters you won't use and Wandy Rodriguez. If pitching depth is your problem, don't be afraid to swap your aforementioned trade bait for pitching. Especially after the next step... Take a good, long look at the free agent pool. Missing the draft means that you have no feel for who people valued and where runs happened. Taking a look at who's still available is a good way to see who you can afford to lose--if there are a bunch of viable outfielders out there, you can afford to get rid of Soriano even more. God, I hate Soriano. If there aren't any guys out there who will even have a chance at getting saves, then you should be paying a premium for relievers. Consider where people took players. When you start offering trades, you have to consider where guys got drafted, because we're still in the preseason and people think that matters. Trades could make 100% perfect sense to both teams, but if the other guy overdrafted his players, the odds are he's overvaluing them. The biggest thing you should do is just not panic: If you can't get good value, even for a player you hate, hold on to him, at least until the season starts. Above all else, the fact that you didn't put in the work in the preseason doesn't mean you still can't win. The most important thing is to scour the waiver wire and make shrewd trades. And next year, try to make the draft on time. Scout Rob

My Top Ten Picks

I am going to go through my first ten picks from this past draft for our ROTO league. 1. (4) Albert Pujols> I was expecting to get David Wright but surprisingly he went 1st overall. So I was very surprised and extremely excited to land the best 1st Baseman, I'll take it! 2. (17) Dustin Pedroia> Ten team league, 2nd pick for me, yes pedroia was a bit of a reach, but I wanted one of the top 3 2nd baseman and Kinsler and utley were gone. 3. (24) Matt Holliday> In my opinion this was my best pick, a steal I think. Holliday might not have 30 Hr power out of Coors and he wont steal 30+ bases in Oakland, but he should hit still hit 20+ HR's and should still have a high AVG and over 100 RBI, he could also chip in 10+ steals. 4. (37) Matt Kemp> Love Matt Kemp all I can say is possibly Grady Sizemore numbers but 31 picks later. 5. (44) Álex Ríos> This pick I like as well solidfied my OF as at least a top 3 coming out of the draft. Rios always has that chance he puts it all together for a whole season and gets to that 30, 30 plateau. He will be hitting 3rd this yr so even in a bad offense I think he could get something like 290-90-20-100-30. 6. (57) Geovany Soto> Like Soto here alot, and with first base covered and none of the top 3rd baseman or short stops left Soto was the guy, I like to wait on pitching. 7. (64) Dan Haren> I didn't expect this, Haren was sitting there, not bad to wait 7 rds and have a ACE quility pitcher still available. 8. (77) Stephen Drew> I was going SS with this pick but it was between Jhonny Peralta and Drew. In my opinion Drew was the guy because of the high AVG other then that I expect similer numbers from both. 9. (84) Aubrey Huff > If Huff does what he did last year then this was grand larceny. If he doesn't then I got him right where I should of. either way it is a solid 3rd baseman to put along side Pujols. 10. (97) Brian Fuentes> This was my #1 closer on the board because I won't pay for guys like Rivera and Lidge. I think that if K ROD can get 62 saves with the Angels then Fuentes should get 40+ this year. One reason why I think that, is Fuentes is just a better closer right now and the Mets will regret paying that money for a declining closer when Fuentes was cheaper.

That's my first ten picks from this past draft and so far I think i am looking pretty good on offense. My pitching after ten rounds was just Fuentes and Haren, but I like to wait on pitching, so as of right now it is a weakness no doubt. I will be posting rounds 11-28 soon to break those down.

The Bay State Scout

Shocker Picks From Roto Draft

All in all, I would say that this was a very competitive draft, the kind where someone is always taking "your" guy right before you're going to. Still many rounds had a pick that left my mouth agape. Now in using the term "shocker", I am not necessarily saying it's a bad pick, rather just something to ponder over an ice cold IPA. It all started in round 1 with David Wright going first overall to the Cubs Scout (yes it makes me chuckle too). It's not that he is unworthy, especially considering the dearth of legit 3rd basemen, but you would be hard pressed to convince me he is more valuable than Hanley Ramirez or A-Rod in a standard 5x5 roto league. Tim Linecum being the first pitcher drafted is not news (especially considering Santana's troubling arm troubles) but being taken at 16 overall by Scout Berardi shocked me. Also, maybe it was destiny that the top three 2nd baseman went off the board in round 2, but Dustin Pedroia at 17 overall by the Bay State Scout is a stretch considering his ADP is in the mid to late twenties. Round 3's surprise must have been a pleasant one for aforementioned Bay State Scout. He was able to procure the new A's leftfielder with the 24th overall pick. So maybe David Ortiz is not going the way of Mo Vaughn, but it's true the big guys don't age well and he is 33. So I just don't see the need to draft someone at the end of the 4th, ten spots ahead of their ADP, when they have health concerns and can only DH for your roto squad. 45.02 and 45.36. What do they represent? Well they are Brian McCann's and Russell Martin's respective ADP and you can't get much closer than that. So Martin goes at 40 overall to the Cubs Scout , not much of a reach if you want his steals but the superior (I think) McCann falls to the 52nd draft spot one spot after Mauer. Yes, I said after! For two players destined to go back to back I was stunned how much later he was drafted. On a side not don't draft catches early it's not worth it grab a Napoli, Clement, Molina (Bengie of course) or Iannetta late and get some real production from a real position from your early round picks. Chris Davis I like him, you like him Scout C.P. Staley loves him! How do I know? He drafted Davis number 54 overall a full twenty spots ahead of his ADP. You say he projects to 34 homeruns in 600 at bats I say he projects 186 K's. A solid stat for a pitcher but an ominous one for a young hitter. I am going against my beloved ADP on this shocker because Adam Dunn was drafted exactly where he should have been. So what's my problem? Well, Mr. Dunn is like a closer, a one category stud, his RBI and Run totals are adequate but his average blows like Big League Chew and he doesn't even steal bases any more. I could go on and on, but I think my point is clear: There is no one way to draft, but use ADP to your advantage. Scout PDX

Draft Strong with MEMSPA!

If you read fantasy sports articles (don’t try to hide, you’re reading one now) you should have come across the mantra, ‘Know the rules of your league!’ This is very good advice as you can do all the player research in the world and it could be useless if you don’t know the rules. For example, I was in a points league last year where the pitchers were heavily favored (very average pitchers would get more points then Arod). Before the draft I noticed where all the points were coming from and drafted accordingly. Amazingly, no one else in the 16 team league saw what I saw until partway through the season. Needless to say, I cleaned up (I did not win however as my pitching did not line up well against my playoff opponent). The advantage is clear to see, so the point I want to make is not so much that I saw the where points were, or that no one else did, but how I saw them. The below advertisement will show the way:

Have you ever said, ‘I have a life, I can’t delve into all the details of the league points and do all the math and squeeze out the few extra point gains.’ Do not despair! Allow me to introduce my easy method to see where the points are. I call it MEMSPA – My Easy Method to See where the Points Are.

To use this tested and proven method all you have to do is look at a few web pages. First, log into your fantasy league – so easy! Second, go to the Players section of your league – can you believe your eyes?. Third, set the view so that you see last years stats for the players – this is already starting to smell good! Fourth, arrange the points from highest to lowest – this looks amazing! You now have the info you need to make wise decisions based on the points of your league – BAM!. You are now able to see what a top point person got (this will be very similar to what will happen this year). You should now be able to arrange the page by positions – this is very helpful as you can quickly see what positions seem to get the most points, which positions have lots of high point guys and which do not (position scarcity anyone?).

Yes! By adhering to MEMSPA in your points league, you to will be able to quickly setup your draft, be competitive, slice the competition, dice your losses, save time, eat healthier, and help the environment (or not). Disclaimer: No longer associated with BALCO. This method does not take into account rookies, please don’t forget about the young guys.

MEMSPA – ‘Live life to the fullest!’

-Scout Monkey

Draft Prep: Know Thy Enemy

By Todd Gold "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity" -Anonymous There are countless season previews all over the internet, position by position rankings and all sorts of articles on draft strategy, most written by people who (somehow) know far more than yours truly (and probably have even less of a life). So instead of giving you more of the same I have instead decided to focus on something a little more unconventional, yet equally important; scouting the opposition. You can (and should, of course) look over all of the mock drafts you want, and while they provide a decent indication of when certain players typically will come off the board, the fact is that every league is different. With a little bit of homework (sorry, but victories must be earned) then you can gain a much better understanding of how long you can wait on certain players. Skimming the Surface First, if you are in a league with people that you know then you already have an abundance of valuable information to work with (especially if you have played with them in fantasy leagues before). First, you should learn the biases and tendencies of the players in your league the best you can. Is one of your competitors a Mariners fan? Do you think that a Mariners fan will pass on Felix Hernandez in round 8? Nevermind that his average draft position (ADP) is 88.4 (on Yahoo! fantasy sports)...Mr. Mariner likely knows this is his ADP as well, and thus he will swoop in and snag him before that point. If you don't have a great interest in acquiring King Felix then this is good for you, someone else will slip as a result of this homer's reach. But, if you're like me, you think that 88.4 is waaaay to late for a budding ace who is improving rapidly at the age of 23 (he's only 23?!). In which case, you know that your going to have to "reach" (if you can really call it that) for Hernandez in round 7. [Hernandez fell to pick 98 in the Pro Fantasy Sports Roto draft...my team had the 99th selection.] This is not to say that all fantasy players are homers who universally take players from their favorite team earlier than they would if they wore a different uniform (although some do). However, if you watch one team far more often than others, you will notice things about certain players that other fans miss. For example; Twins fans are probably keenly aware that while Justin Morneau's HR total dropped from 34 to 31 to 24 over the last 3 years, he actually had 9 more extra base hits (a career high 74), meaning that the decline in HRs over the past two seasons is simply a case of line drives hitting the wall instead of going over it, rather than a decline in power. Thus, with this knowledge and perhaps a (subconscious) bias to prefer Morneau, Twins fans are more likely to select their team's slugger over Prince Fielder, even though Fielder has been taken 9 picks sooner in Yahoo! drafts on average. If you want to wait another round to grab a guy you really want and get him next time around, you are engaging in a high risk-high reward proposition. Wouldn't you feel better having an extra tidbit of information when taking these types of gambles? But more importantly than real-life rooting interests or a track record of waiting on SPs or refusing to "pay for saves," is to keep track of what each team has already selected and by extension, what they need. Nearly all online draft rooms will have a way for you to look at your opponent's rosters as the draft progresses. Looking Ahead Lets say that at the end of round 9 you have yet to grab a 2B, your options are probably looking like Howie Kendrick, Kelly Johnson and Mark DeRosa. Most likely, if you find yourself in this situation you will be one of the last owners without at least one keystoner. If so, chances are that none of those guys will be snapped up before your turn in round 10, thus freeing you to go after a high-upside guy like Yovani Gallardo or Lastings Milledge. But if there are two owners left who pick after you and neither of them has a 2B yet, chances are that one of both of them will be picking one before your next selection. In which case it would be wise to grab the one you want. Whether or not these types of gambles work out can be the difference between simply filling out a roster and taking the competition out to the woodshed. Here are some draft tips to give you that extra edge:

• Name your team after a player or team you consider overrated. This will do one of two things to opposing owner's opinions of you: a. it will cause the more casual players to associate a name brand with that player, subtly inflating his appeal (rarely) or more likely...b. make them think you are an idiot (believe it or not this can often be a good thing...more on this in a moment).

• Use the in-draft chat to your advantage. If your playing with a bunch of strangers, this is a way to gather whatever information you can. Show up early and talk baseball with them. Oh, KC Sluggerrs is run by a Royals fan? It would be reasonable to assume that Zack Greinke won't be on the board in the 12th round with this guy in your league. But why go solely off inferences? Ask him/her "so, Greinke has been pretty good lately, are you worried he might lose his marbles again?" Sure, it's a stupid question, but you'll likely get a response in which they will tip their hand. Also, you can blurt out "oh wow, just noticed that Todd Helton was still out there, oops" in late rounds if you're hoping and praying that Joey Votto doesn't get taken before your next pick. Or, if that's too obvious, ask "is Johan Santana still injured?" during your pick in the 2nd round if you'd like to try and entice an early run on pitching by implying that you are considering taking him.

• Let (nay, MAKE) everyone think you are the league's sucker. Fantasy sports are not merely a numbers game, they are also a psychological wrestling match. Owners are generally seeking to trade with partners that they can get more value than they give up (duh). So if you are the league's sucker in the mind of the other owners, you are likely to get a whole lot of people trying to rip you off. If you are more informed than they are, this can be a deadly trap to set. Sure, you'll have to reject a ton of low-ball offers, but you can sit on them for a few days and see if an injury pops up before rejecting them, but whats the harm? Personal cautionary anecdote: In 2006 I offered Jermaine Dye for Francisco Liriano about a week before he suffered a season ending elbow injury, the other owner sat on it for a while and wound up with a very good OF in exchange for a guy he would have dropped. There can be other benefits to being perceived as the league dunce, such as lazy owners not weighing lineup decisions in weekly head-to-head leagues or assuming that your Snake-in-the-Grass, Too-Good-to-be-True trade offer was made out of stupidity. Let them laugh first (encourage it even), so that you can laugh last.

• Be at the draft...FOR EVERY ROUND. There is nothing worse than missing a draft, although losing your internet connection during it is pretty close. When your neighbor's have an unencrypted wireless network which saves you money on your cable bill, you may want to consider going to a coffee shop or library to draft. Otherwise you risk losing your internet connection and winding up with Edgar Renteria on your team.

• Lastly and most importantly: ALWAYS BE THINKING SEVERAL PICKS AHEAD. Have an idea of where each player typically is taken, adjust those expectations based on what has happened thus far and whom you are competing with and PUT THIS INFORMATION TO GOOD USE.