Spring Training Updates: Pitchers

Gio Gonzalez - A's
Stats: 1-2 - 2.96 ERA - 25 K's - 24.1 IP.
Outlook: The big prospect didn't do much in 2009, but he did post 109 K's with 98.2 IP.  He has the makings of a very good fantasy starting pitcher, but is still young and still pitches for the A's.

Francisco Liriano - Twins
Stats: 2-0 - 2.70 - 30 K's - 20 IP.
Outlook: He has been brilliant as a starter and talk still swirls about him closing.  Either Liriano may be back to his stud-self and you may want to try and swing a trade for him before the season starts.

Chris Young - Padres
Stats: 2-2 - 3.32 - 21.2 K's - 22 IP.
Outlook: He is a forgotten pitcher by many, but could be a nice veteran fantasy starter.  Plays in a pitchers park, gets K's and he looks healthy.

Dana Eveland - Blue Jays
Stats: 0-1 - 1.80 ERA - 21 K's - 25 IP.
Outlook: He struggled in 2009 after a solid rookie 2008 debut. He was one of the players acquired in the Dan Haren trade, so he has talent.  He is one to keep an eye on in deep leagues or AL-only for now.

Fausto Carmona - Indians
Stats: 3-0 - 1.38 - 12 K's - 26 IP.
Outlook: He has been a bum since winning 19 in 2007, but he looked sharp in Spring Training and is worth a shot if you need to fill in your last SP slot.  FYI: He is not much of a K-pitcher.

Ian Kennedy - Diamondbacks
Stats: 3-1 - 2.88 ERA - 17 K's - 25 IP.
Outlook: The one-time Yankee prospect is looking good for the D'backs and will be in the rotation.

Wade LeBlanc - Padres
Stats: 4-0 - 1.96 ERA - 17 K's - 23 IP.
Outlook: He played well after his call-up in 2009 and has kept it up in Spring Training. Padre pitchers are worth picking up and taken a shot at to improve you ERA and WHIP if he can get into the rotation at some point in 2010. 

Mat Latos - Padres
Stats: 3-0 - 1.59 ERA - 14 K's - 17 IP.
Outlook: Unlike LeBlanc, he is in the Padre starting rotation.  He played solid as a rookie in 2009 and maintains a solid K/9-ratio and that is enough to make as a low-end fantasy starter.

Over Looked

Last year many players that had all the pre draft hype may have failed miserably. What does that mean to me, you ask? Well it means you can get these guys much cheaper in the draft this year and ride them to glory.

Here are two of my Favorites that I feel are going to out produce many players taken before them.

1. SP Francisco Liriano: Liriano is coming off a season where he just fell off the map going 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA. He was in and out of the rotation with arm issues and just couldn't put it together. I know his 2ND half last year was not good going 1-4 with a +6 ERA and everyone is backing off because of it. That is good for you, according to Mockdraftcentral.com his current ADP has him being drafted at 215 as the 57Th pitcher off the board and he is being undrafted in about 14% of leagues.

Am I inspiring you to take him yet? I should be because he was at times Dominant in winter league ball. In his last game for his Dominican winter league club he struck out 10 over 5 well allowing just 1 hit and was consistently hitting 95 MPH with his fastball and showing a tight break on his slider.

Grab him as a number 3 and by mid year you will have a Fantasy ACE.

2. SP Ervin Santana: Santana is another player who destroyed many a fantasy team last year. He finished 8-8 with a 5.10 ERA and battled arm issues all season. His current ADP is also in the 200's at number 227 the 63rd pitcher off the board.

The angels lost Lackey and to be competitive this guy needs to pitch like he did in 2008 and I think he will. He finished last year very strong going 7-3 with a 3.90 ERA 77 K's in 99 innings and 2 CG while allowing a 260 BA Against for the Angels.

I think Santana, like Liriano, should be drafted as a potential fantasy ACE.

The Bay State Scout
(bay_state_scout@comcast.net)

Things I Know...

And some I think I know. I know the first three weeks aren’t even one tenth of the season. It is however enough to notice some trends. Here are a few of those trends that I believe will continue, some that will change soon, and how to make the best of the hot and cold starts. I know Aaron Hill is healthy again. He also just turned the magic age of 27. He will finish the year among the top seven 2nd baseman. Most of 2008 was lost to post concussion syndrome for Hill. His 2007 numbers were solid, and with the hot start to the season, I expect more of the same. He is still available in many leagues, so stop reading this and go get him. I know Jason Bartlett is on pace for 25 home runs. He will not hit 25 home runs. He will however steal 25 bases, hit .285, and score 85 runs. Even though he will primarily be hitting down in the lineup, it seems as if Joe Maddon will give Bartlett the green light to steal whenever he wants to. The top of the Rays lineup has plenty of pop to drive him in with regularity. Bartlett is still available in most leagues and is a solid SS or MI for any team that is already set in the power department. I know Francisco Liriano will not go 0-35. In three outings, the Twins have scored a total of three runs for Liriano. Of course he did not help his cause by letting up ten in fewer than 18 innings of work. His Ks are down a bit through three starts, but I am not that worried about Liriano. His last turn he shut down the suddenly potent Blue Jay offense and then watched the bullpen give up seven runs before he even sat down in the dugout. If you can find an owner who looks at his 0-3 record and a 5.09 ERA and wants to get rid of Liriano, be sure you are in line to give him an offer. I know Zach Greinke will allow a run this year. Anyone who can march into Texas and shut down that offense has figured this pitching thing out. With the shutout on Saturday, Greinke extended his scoreless innings streak to 34. This kid is the real deal. The former 1st round pick is proving that you can find fantasy value even on a bad team. Greinke is not available in most leagues and you may have to pay a high price to pry him away from another owner, but he will be well worth it in the end. I know Jimmy Rollins will finish the year hitting higher than .133, but will not sniff the 30/30 club again. The stolen bases will be there in the end, but I do not see him with more than 18 homers. Take a look back at his career numbers, his 30 home runs are certainly the outlier, not the norm. In the Philadelphia lineup he will still score a ton of runs and get on base enough to get 35-40 steals, but his slow start may lead to a frustrated owner willing to deal Rollins for less than true value. I know Chien-Ming Wang will finish with an ERA below 34.50, but higher than 4.50. Wang has always been a fantasy oddity; high win totals, decent ratios, but very low strikeout numbers. The Yankees seem to think that there is nothing different from last year before a foot injury ended Wang’s season, but his 4.83 WHIP seems to say otherwise. Unless you are in a Grand Canyon deep league with a big bench, Wang is expendable. I know Emilio Bonaficio had a great few days last week. His blazing start had owners running to their computers to grab this Florida flyer. He followed that up with a 3-24 stretch with 11 Ks. The Marlins have several other lead-off and 3rd base options if Bonaficio continues to struggle, and I expect him to do just that. If you were an owner who grabbed him, time is running out to get any trade value for him. I know Kevin Millwood plays for Texas… for now. Texas is a hitter’s haven in the summertime, and Millwood’s ERA since he moved to the Lone Star State has never dipped below 5. I would have more faith in Millwood if his home/road splits were better over the last few years, but he has done nothing to prove that these three starts are just an anomaly. Millwood is in a contract year and is off to a hot start, so it looks like he may be motivated to cash in this offseason. If Texas falls out of the AL West race, it would not surprise me if Millwood is dealt to a contender. I don’t trust any pitchers in the hot Texas sun, so I would stay away from Millwood unless he leaves town. I know Alexei Ramirez will homer and steal a base this season. He will not take major strides and build on his numbers from last year. Early in the season it looks like pitchers have adjusted to the Cuban Missile. He is a free swinger who is buried at the bottom of the White Sox lineup, which could quite possibly be the slowest lineup in the league. With basepath cloggers in front of him and the bottom of the order behind him I cannot see his RBI or runs totals going much higher than 70. He is nowhere near droppable status but I would consider dealing him if you can get good value for him. I know Edinson Volquez will strike out more hitters than he walks. The first two outings did not look good for Volquez. The third turn he did manage to shut down a weak hitting Houston team, but still sprinkled in five walks. His ERA was 4.60 after the All-Star break last year, and his WHIP was 1.46. Ask any Cubs fan, Dusty Baker doesn’t exactly do wonders for young pitchers. He is not too good with veterans if you ask Aaron Harang. His strikeout numbers will still be high, but I would be shocked to see an ERA lower than 4.00. Try and use his recent good turn to get some value for him in a trade market.