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Monday, March 1, 2010

Spring Fever

With baseball players reporting to camps, spring training games about to start, and outside temperatures creeping towards tolerable, spring is here! Officially spring doesn't start until March 20th, but I'm not a slave to what 'The Man' says, it's here in my book. However, you can't talk about spring without mentioning the dreaded spring fever.
Spring fever manifests itself it several ways, but to fantasy baseball fans it often shows up with bad decisions. How so? For those who have had their draft, or are in keeper leagues, the desire to 'play' takes over. Since the season is still some time off, 'playing' happens in the form of trades. When you make a trade, your playing. This desire to play/trade is strong, so strong that bad offers are made in order to make a deal. For some reason we forget how good this player was, or how average that player performed and we offer lopsided trades, generally not in our favor. It's possible to 'play' your way right out of the post season without the season even starting! For those who haven't had a draft yet, you are protected as there is no bad decisions to be made... yet.
The bright side is that you are not alone. This fever affects other owners as well and this knowledge can be used to your advantage. To win the battle of spring fever and maybe come out ahead, follow these steps:
1) Know your team. There is nothing like making a trade for a player that fills a position that you already have nicely filled. Trades should always have the purpose of making your team better.
2) Research your trades. Do not be quick to pull the trigger. There is nothing wrong with offering trades this time of year, even lots of them, just do not be too hasty.
3) Test the waters. Send out trades that favor you (within reason, let's stay in the realm of fair) and see if you get any bites. Chances are, the fever is hitting someone and you can make some nice deals for yourself. Perhaps target some guys who are good but didn't perform well last year due to injuries, such as Jose Reyes, or Chien-Ming Wang.
Baseball is not too far off. The fever will subside. Until then, follow closely the above remedy and keep your yourself and your team healthy.
-Scout Monkey

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Monday, February 22, 2010

Injury Bargains - Hitters Edition

Scout Hoffman (@hoffybeisbol) seniorbeisbol@gmail.com http://www.profantasybaseball.com/

Last week I discussed a few pitchers that are returning from an injury plagued 2009 season that are coming off draft boards at a bargain price. Drafting pitchers with injury risks is not for the faint of heart, a little tweak in the elbow or shoulder and you go from draft day genius to a GM scrambling to fill a roster spot. The recovery process for a hitter is not as daunting as the return for a pitcher.

Jose Reyes SS/NYM - The last thing you want from a speedster is a bad leg. Reyes was a top five pick in most leagues last year, and spent most of the year on the DL with a slightly torn hamstring. The best way to repair a torn muscle is rest, which Reyes has been doing since May. He claims to be back to 100% and could be a great bargain as he is currently going as the 22nd pick. If he is healthy you should see a .300/15HR/65RBI/100R/60SB line, which is worthy of a top five pick. Reyes is only 26 years old and has had sufficient time to recover from his injury, I expect big things from him this year.

Josh Hamilton OF/TEX - If you are looking for a guy who knows a thing or two about comebacks, Hamilton is your guy. Out of baseball and battling some inner demons for years, Hamilton burst back onto the scene in 2007 and put up MVP caliber numbers in 2008. In 2009 he was basically non-factor, missing time with various ailments and playing in only 89 games. At 28, Hamilton is still in his prime, and we have seen what he can do when he is healthy, but his health is not a sure thing. He is currently being drafted in the 5-6 round range, with an ADP of 53. He has the upside of a number one outfielder, but I still see some DL time in his future, with 130 games played being about what to expect. If you can get him as your number three outfielder and have the bench space for an injury replacement he could be a bargain in the 6th round.

Rickie Weeks 2B/MIL - Rickie Weeks started 2009 looking like he was going to finally put to use all of his potential. That was until late May when he tore a tendon sheath in his wrist. This is a similar injury to what Weeks went through on his other wrist in 2006. It may take him some time to regain his stroke, but could be an intriguing late pick if he rounds into form in the second half. He is being drafted around pick 200 so there is not much of an investment for the possibility of a good player at a thin position. I would not take him as my only 2nd baseman, but he would be a good guy to stash on your bench.

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