Harvesting the Farm - Part 3

On the farm, some things take longer to grow then others. Baseball players are no different. Part 3 of this series is going to focus on some players that will more then likely be late call ups at best but are still considered top prospects. You want to know these names as they may surprise us this year, and should be on your radar for next (especially those of you in keeper leagues).

Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Rangers - I must admit, I am very impressed with what the Rangers have going. They have some good young pitchers (including some real studs in their farm), and they continue to have great hitting. It's almost unfair that they have Justin Smoak. Smoak is a switch hitting 1B - ala Mark Texeira. At 23 he has nice power which should keep increasing. The only thing that has slowed him down is good AAA pitching. Before AAA he had a .320+ AVG, but it took a dip down to .244 in 54 games when he reached the Pacific Coast League. As talented a hitter as he is, expect him to adjust. Another concern is that his strikeout rate is about 25% (in AAA). Not too good (but better then Texas' current 1B, Chris Davis). Again, he needs some adjustments. If/when he adjusts, it will be hard for the Rangers to not bring him up - but they just don't have a spot for him yet. However, unless Davis improves, Smoak may overtake him as soon as this year.

Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates - Alvarez is all about power. It is easy to see him as a 40 HR guy. It was much easier to see that before last year. His fast track to the majors took a major detour to the tune of a .234 AVG. Not sure why he struggled so much, but assuming he turns it around in the minors this year, he could be huge in 2011. At 23, it's also not far fetched to see him contribute this year, but not likely until after the All-Star break, and even then not likely as an everyday player. With all that said, the potential of Alvarez commands our attention.

Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants - Of the three guys mentioned in this article, Bumgarner has the best chance to play the most in the majors. He is a left handed pitcher who throws in the low 90's (he's been clocked above 95, but did not show that kind of velocity for much of the year). He got a taste of the bigs last year with a spot start and faired well (but one start is not much to gauge). He has a chance to make the rotation, but he will have a serious innings limit (he is only 20 years old). My guess is that they will wait to bring him up and use him for a late fall push (or at least to get his feet wet for 2011). How good is he? In the last two years (AA and A+), he has an ERA of 1.65 and strikes out almost a batter an inning (8.4 per nine). You have to imagine that those numbers will not be that good against big league hitting, but the potential for success is there. Depending where he ends up when camp breaks, he may just be a guy to keep an eye on, or he may be worth a late round flier.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Harvesting the Farm - Part 2

The prospects growing in the farm systems are a must know for your fantasy team. Not all will make the majors, and some that do will not produce well - that said, some will be the next stars.

In part one of 'Harvesting the Farm' I brought your attention to the top of the top of prospects, Stephen Strasburg, Aroldis Chapman, and Jason Heyward. The next three are still highly touted and nearly guaranteed to play this year.

Neftali Feliz, SP/RP, Texas Rangers - A young right hander who throws some serious heat (in the area of 98 MPH). The Rangers could always hit, but now are adding some good young pitching to the mix. Feliz has already pitched well in the big leagues, albeit in the bullpen (31 innings, 39 Ks, 1.74 ERA). Texas would like him to be a starter, but hasn't made any final decisions. He could be a great starter, an excellent late innings guy, or even a closer this year. He is worth a mid to late draft pick as long as he is a starter or a closer.

Alcides Escobar, SS, Milwakee Brewers - Not every prospect is going to hit like Pujols, but that doesn't mean they can't help your team, even significantly. Escobar falls into that category. He is a speedy hitter with excellent defense. His defense will keep him as a starter for the Brewers, but his bat is where he needs to show he can be their new leadoff guy. If all things go to plan, count on a .280 hitter, 40 SB, and around 80 runs - there is so much potential for more SBs and runs with his speed. If you miss out on the top tier SS in your draft, Escobar should be available in the later rounds.

Austin Jackson, OF, Detroit Tigers - The corner stone in the Curtis Granderson trade, Jackson's time is now. He has been the top prospect for the Yankees for awhile, and now he is going to actually start for Detroit (what Yankee fans were hoping the Yanks would do for much of last year). With his speed and what he has shown as a contact hitter, the initial plan is for him to be their leadoff man. However, his bat has not been as consistent as one would like. He really seems to be a streaky hitter so far. If he is able to show a little more consistency he will deliver in a big way. If he increases his power some, he could be a super-star. The ceiling is high on Jackson and is definitely worth a late round pick.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Harvesting the Farm - Part 1

I could tell you that Hanley Ramirez should be drafted very high, Albert Pujols is arguably the best hitter in baseball, and Tim Lincecum is a monster pitcher, but you know all of that. I would like to help you out on more of the up-and-comers. The farm systems are ripe for picking.

Part 1 of this 3 part series is about the top prospects. May not be too many surprises here, but these are names you must know (and will know, for better or worse) by the end of the season.

Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals - One of the most super hyped pitchers I can remember. The guy can throw 100+ MPH and had an amazing strikeout rate in college. When he plays in the majors and how well against big league hitting is yet to be seen, but the potential is there. Downside of Strasburg is that he could be a serious injury risk. Barring injury, he will be in the majors before year end, and I wouldn't be very surprised to see him on the opening day roster.

Aroldis Chapman, SP, Cincinnati Reds - After Strasburg, Chapman was the leader in hype. A young lefty that can throw 100+. Visions of the next Randy Johnson danced in teams heads. Again, when he will show up in the majors and how well he will do is unknown. Good thing about Chapman is that he is said to throw an 'easy' fastball, meaning that he is less of an injury risk. I give Chapman an outside shot at making the opening day roster, but see him as a late call up.

Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves - Generally considered the best non-pitching prospect, Heyward could contribute right away. My favorite description is that he does everything good, but nothing great. This is not a bad thing, good average, good power, good speed, good defense - this adds up to making an immediate impact. However, he is only 20 and does not have a guaranteed spot in the OF. He will battle in spring for one, and even if he makes the team he could share time as the Braves have some good options. If he gets full time play, he could be a solid player on your team, if he gets part time play, he might be nice off the bench, but would be more of a keeper prospect for 2011.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Welcome 2010!

Hello all and welcome to spring! Baseball is around the corner and it's now time to start thinking about your draft and/or the up and comers who you should know about in your keeper league. I'm here to help you along. I'm the Scout Monkey.

Question: Why listen to your advice?

Answer: I do lots of research.

Question: Is that the only reason to listen to your advice?

Answer: No, but that is the best. I do the research so you do not have to. Read enough articles about a guy and you start to get a nice impression of what to expect. Couple that with being a baseball fan for 30+ years, and I usually come up with some solid stuff.

Question: How was your advice last year?

Answer: Much more good then bad (Nobody's perfect).

Good Advice: J.A. Happ, Jordan Zimmerman (prior to injury), Joba expectations (and Sell High advice), Kendry Morales, Cliff Lee (pleaded with people to not trade him after his bad start to the season), Shin-Soo Choo. - To name a few.

Bad Advice: Daniel Murphy (way off), Kris Medlen (AAAA pitcher I guess), Derek Holland (wasn't a bust, but I had higher expectations), Mets (pretty much anything with them).

Clearly I'm not perfect, I'm certainly not psychic, but I can throw down some decent knowledge to keep you informed.

Question: How about some advice now?

Answer: Keep an eye on the Cardinals 5th rotation spot. The two prime candidates are Kyle McClellan and Jaime Garcia. McClellan has more experience and has pitched very well in relief. His four pitches can keep hitters guessing even after the first time through the lineup. Garcia is younger and has the higher ceiling, but has had only limited time to show his stuff since his return from Tommy John surgery. What Garcia has shown, though, has been very good. Usually you don't focus too much attention on a number 5 starter, but both of these guys can pitch better then the spot they are vying for (not to mention a good offense and a good defense to back them up).

Question: Is this the end of the article?

Answer: Yes.

- Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Ride the Wave

By this time of year, all the really good players are gone. By this time of year, most of the unknowns/sleepers have shown what to expect from them for the rest of the year. By this time of year, the waiver pile is looking fairly slim. Does this mean that your fantasy baseball life has come to a stagnant finish? No! Of course there are always trades that can be made, but my focus here is on the 'hot' player. How do you get Johan Santana numbers without getting Johan Santana? You ride the wave of a 'hot' pitcher. How do you get Hanley Ramirez numbers without having Hanley Ramirez? You guessed it, ride the wave of a 'hot' batter. Unless your team is rock solid (congrats if it is) you probably have a position that you can be flexible with. Maybe you have two top outfielders but your third one is nobody special, perhaps your infield has a weakness, or, like most teams, you have holes in your rotation. This is the position that riding the wave can help you. Why hold on to an average player when you can get an average player who is on a hot streak? There is no reason. Grab a guy who is performing higher then he should and ride the wave of good performance until it starts to break and then hop on another wave. The downside of this strategy is minimal. With batters, there are no issues - you are replacing an average player with an average player, the worst that will happen is average numbers. No loss there. Where this strategy can hurt you is with pitching. When an average pitcher is on a streak, you can get some great stats from him, but when that streak ends, it could be bad. Maybe the wave will fizzle out slowly, or maybe it will crash hard. For example, if you had picked up Dontrelle Willis after he had an excellent start, that wave ended quickly and he put up awful, awful numbers - that one probably hurt you. Here's a few of guys who are hot right now, consider riding their wave: Luis Valbuena (2B, SS - Indians) in the last one week he is hitting .434, 4 runs, 3 HRs, 7 RBIs, 2 BB (Wow!) Juan Rivera (OF - Angels) in the last two weeks, he is hitting .333, 8 runs, 4 HRs, 12 RBIs, 5 BB (Good stuff!) Scott Podsednik (OF - White Sox) in the last two weeks he is hitting .363, 8 runs, 2 HRs, 7 RBIs, 6 BB, 3 SB Aaron Cook (SP - Rockies) In his last 4 starts he has 4 wins, an ERA of just under 2.00, 18 Ks, and only 5 BB (Been a good ride so far...) In a week or two, this list should look a lot different. Riding the wave is transitory solution. You generally will not keep the guy for more then a couple of weeks. So if you have a need, find the hot player and ride his wave. Hang 10 into the playoffs. -Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Me and Cecil

I have been dishing out advice for a few months and yet have still not introduced myself or my methods. Let me take a brief moment to do that. I think that it's at least fair for you all to know how I'm coming to the conclusions that I provide here. My name is Mark, and I am a California native who now lives in New York. I go by the Scout name of' Scout Monkey' for the simple reason that I like monkeys (who doesn't?). Enough about me. My methods are simple, research, research, more research. My goal is to do all the research so you don't have to. I try to consolidate what I learn into timely, useful articles. Now, I don't have inside access to any baseball organizations, but I do have access to the TV, radio, and the internet and I make full use of them. Official MLB sites, large news sites, small sites, I visit them all. Reading all the news about a player from different sites and different view points, allows me to get a good all around picture of what to expect from him. Not that my picture is always right, but a lot of data gives me the best chance at being right. My own opinions/gut come into play as well. Although I try to be as objective as possible, some guys just jump out at me for one reason or another - I go with it, sometimes I can't put my finger on it, but there must be some reason that they got my attention. Here's an example of how an article/recommendation comes to be: Brett Cecil, SP for the Blue Jays. First, is he a known player? A quick look at my leagues tell me that he is owned in less the 15% of Yahoo and less then 2% of ESPN. Ok, not very well known at all. Second, should he be known? - After all, what point is there to writing a recommendation that everyone knows about already or writing a recommendation for a player who stinks? A check of his stats shows that he has pitched very well since being called up (due to injuries in the rotation). He's not walking people, he's not giving up runs, he has nearly as many K's as innings pitched (12:14), playing for a hot team. I like where this is going. My initial opinion is that this guy needs to be getting more looks then he currently is. But, I'm not satisfied. Third, more research. I haven't watched his games, so what if he has just been getting fortunate so far? Well, according to sites that talk about him, they have generally good things to say. Some go as far as sayin he is a future star (but how many times has that been said about a guy who put together a few good starts?). So, good stats, good opinions in general, talk of some decent upside, I think we have an article. Where is the down side (everyone has a downside - Pujols is slow, Lincecum plays for the Giants, etc.)? He's young (22) which means there will be the inevitable 'bumps in the road.' No big deal there, just be aware of it. Second, he has only two major league starts to look at, not a big sample, but not irrelevant either. Third, the Jays have a ton of pitching and much of it will be back soon from injury. What will the Jays do? Keep a hot Cecil in the rotation, move him to the pen, or send him down to AAA until another injury? Don't know, no one is talking about that yet. Not a deal breaker by any means, but another good thing to be aware of. You have to think though, that if a guy is on a streak, he would have to show signs of struggling before getting the hook. All in all, I would recommend Cecil. Although young, he is doing great so far, has upside, playing on a good team, and will probably keep his spot in the rotation unless there is some sort of breakdown. And we have an article. Well, there you go. That's me and my method. Aren't you glad you didn't have to do all that? Just remember, this one panned out and could make a decent article/recommendation, many don't pan out at all (but the time is still spent). I won't always be right, but I'm hoping to be right far more often then wrong for you all, and yes, I do take my own advice (I am of that 2% in ESPN that own Cecil). Feel free to call me out when I make mistakes (and I have...), or feel free to pat me on the back if I help your team (aww shucks, just doin my job). That's all for now, gotta go do some more research (will Buster Posey have relevance this year...). - Scout Monkey (scout_monkey@gmx.com)

New Stadium, New Rules

"Here's the pitch... a pop up towards the right fielder... he's drifting back, back, back, on the track, against the wall... GONE! Another home run!" A pop up that goes out? Coors Field? Little League? Wiffle ball? Nope, New Yankee Stadium. Get the ball in the air heading towards right field and you may have a 4 bagger. It's early in the season but there have already been 26 home runs hit so far in the new Yankee Stadium (not counting pre-season)! To make matters worse, it's not even warm out yet. The potential is there for an astonishing amount of home runs this summer. We will know how these stats hold up as time goes on, but both managers and hitters are saying the same thing, the ball really carries to right field. The early indication is that there is some sort of 'wind tunnel' that is blowing out to right due to the design of the stadium. Regardless of the science, the results have been pretty clear so far - new Yankee Stadium is a hitters park. So much so that it is being used in the same sentence as Coors Field! That is not a favorable comparison, especially since the altitude in Coors is something that cannot be overcome, but new Yankee Stadium is about 5000 feet lower then Coors. What does this mean to your fantasy team? The answer is simple, treat the value of players the same way as you would players for Colorado. Hitters are better, especially hitters who hit to right field (Giambi might have hit 40+ dingers if he still played for the Yanks). Pitchers on the other hand are to be viewed with a little less value. A good pitcher is a good pitcher, so I'm not saying don't own Sabathia, what I am saying is that if you had Sabathia ranked higher then say, Lincecum or Santana (who is now pitching in what is looking like a pitchers park), you may want to drop him below them. Still worth a lot, just moved a notch down. So, when looking at two equal hitters between a Yankee and another team, give the edge to the Yankee. When looking at two equal pitchers between a Yankee and another team, give the edge to the other team. (Along these lines, read Scout Berardi's article - 'Know Your Home') There is talk about the Yankees investigating the stadium and even making adjustments to try and correct the 'wind tunnel', but until that happens, be a little wary of pitchers (Yankee or visitor) in Yankee stadium and be ready to play your hitters there. - Scout Monkey (scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Be The Turtle!

There is a classic story of a long distance race between a tortoise and a hair (or as I call them, a turtle and a rabbit). With the rabbit being so fast and the turtle being so slow, it wouldn't seem like much of a race. However, as we know, the turtle won. The rabbit started out good and then took it easy along the way since it was so far ahead. The turtle just kept going and won the race while the rabbit was taking a nap. What am I getting at? Fast and slow don't always matter. Endurance and persistence is where it's at. We are just over two weeks into the season and we are seeing some fast starts and some slow starts. However, the baseball season is a marathon. There are really good players that are not doing so well right now, there are some unknown or downright below average players who are looking like all-stars. Fast and slow don't always matter. Your approach to all this should be as follows: 1) Be patient. Heard this before? Me too. All the time. It's good advice. In fact, it's great advice. However, it is soooo hard to actually apply it. Seeing a guy on your team that is not hitting or not pitching is difficult to take. It eats away at you. Now, you may think, "There are so many players that are doing better. I'll just drop him and pick up a new guy off the waiver wire." I know I have thought that. Or a trade may be offered that could get you someone who is producing now. Don't do it! It's way too early to give up on your players. Josh Hamilton (.229, 1 HR) is going to be fine. Jimmy Rollins (.152 ERA, 1 HR, 4 RBI) is going to be fine. 2) Leave room for opportunities. Unknown/young players are going to be the next superstars. Pujols, Santana, Wright, Manny, etc. were all unknown/young players at some point. It's not a bad idea to grab a young guy who is doing good. Scout Rob had a recent article that made the point that we really have no idea who is going to be the next Cliff Lee (and for that matter, Pujols, Wright, etc.). Who is going to end the year as the rookie of the year? Don't know, but I sure hope he is on my team. I really, really hope he is on my team in my keeper league (keeper leagues make you think a little different - you look to win now and later). Take a chance on some of these young, quick starters, because they may be a star by the end of the year. With all that said, do not drop a Cole Hamels (0-1, 11.17 ERA, 5 SO) to get one of these unknowns. Be reasonable. The season is long. Star players will have star numbers (with very few exceptions *cough* Ortiz *cough*). Some fast start players will end the year on the bench or in the minors (and a few might just end up as 1st round picks in fantasy baseball next year). Slow and steady wins the race. Be the turtle, stick with your guns, and keep a prospect in your back pocket. - Scout Monkey (scout_monkey@gmx.com)