Heyward Earns Starting Gig

Scout Hoffman (@hoffybiesbol) www.Profantasybaseball.com seniorbeisbol@gmail.com Today there was news out of the Atlanta Braves camp that top prospect Jason Heyward will start the year as the everyday rightfielder. Heyward is a top prospect that has a very bright future. Standing 6'4, 240, he certainly looks the part. Drafted in the first round, 14th overall, in the 2007 he certainly has the pedigree, but will he be relevant in fantasy circles this year? Hewyard has spent the last two years burning through the Braves' system, delivering five category goodness. In less than 900 ABs, he has a line of .318 AVG/164 R/29 HR/125 RBI/26 SB. There is no reason not to see 30/30 upside in him... someday. Some scouts are calling him a 'once in a decade' talent, or the next Justin Upton. While those expectations could be proven true, keep in mind Heyward is only 20 years old. Before you go drafting Heyward in the first round, be sure to take a look at the history books. Only five players have ever driven in 100 runs at age 20, five have had more than 200 hits, six have hit more than 25 homers, and only ten have scored over 100 runs. I fully expect Heyward to become a top pick in the next few years, but temper those expectations for this year. I see him having a year similar to Justin Upton at age 20, but with a few more steals and a full seasons worth of ABs. .274 AVG/79R/18 HR/77 RBI/14 SB seems to be a reasonable expectation. His 219 ADP will likely go down now that he is assured to start the year with the big club, but unless you are playing in a keeper league, be sure not to reach to early for this young star. He is a decent OF3 or an above average OF4.

Early Draft Reaches

Scout Hoffman (@hoffybeisbol) www.profantasybaseball.com seniorbeisbol@gmail.com Take a look at any draft and you will find a fair amount of reaches and steals. When you look back on your draft it is okay to have a reach or two on your roster, but you would much rather have more steals than reaches. A reach is when a player is drafted much earlier than his value would suggest he should be. There are occasions when reaching for a player is not a bad thing or cannot be avoided. If you are stuck on the turn (last or first pick) of a serpentine draft you will probably have to reach a few times to avoid being left out of a run on a certain position. Certain keeper leagues are okay to reach in as well. If your league has restraints on who you can keep (i.e, top players cannot be kept, or players are kept in the round they are drafted in for next year) you may want to reach for a young player on the upswing later on in your draft. As with any fantasy advice, it will not apply to every league. Look at your league settings, and know your leaguemates before heeding any advice. I will take a look at some draft reaches today, and follow that up with some players you might be able to steal in your draft later this week. Jimmy Rollins (ADP - 20) / J-Roll has seen his average drop nearly .50 over the past two seasons and his steals last year dipped to a five season low of 31. Rollins turns 32 this year and by no means is washed up, but I no longer see him as a second round pick. Being in the Philadelphia lineup will help conserve a chunk of his value. Last year he had the lowest OBP (.296) of any player who scored 100 runs (fun fact, the second lowest belongs to teammate Shane Victorino). He should still deliver a solid across the board line, but there are much better options as a number two pick. Jason Bay (ADP - 26) / Jason Bay blossomed in his 200 game stint with Boston. Unfortunately for Sox fans and Bay owners, he no longer has the Green Monster to take aim at summer long. This year Bay will be roaming the spacious outfield in New York's CITI field and because of this, Bay's power numbers will likely take a hit. In 2009 Bay was in the middle of a lineup that was third in the league in runs scored and outscored the Mets by over 200 runs. With Reyes and Beltran iffy for the beginning of the season it would be a stretch to assume Bay will come close to the 103/36/119 stat line from last year. With numbers closer to 90/25/95/.265/9 Bay does not stick out in a talent rich outfield class this year and certainly does not warrant a third round pick. Manny Ramirez (ADP - 61) / Which Manny are you going to get, the pre-steroid bust masher averaging an HR every 13.4 ABs or the cheater who averaged an HR every 23.1 ABs? Guess which owner is going to use a 6th or 7th round pick to find out? Not me. There is too much baggage and too many unanswered questions surrounding a guy who has talked about retirement, playing in Japan, and playing for five more years in LA all in the past month. When he is on and interested he is one of the best hitters in the game, but the early rounds of a draft are not a time to take major gambles. Pass on Manny and let some other owner deal with a summer of 'Manny being Manny.' Later this week I will discuss a few late round steals that may help you in your upcoming draft.

Spring Injury News

Senior Beisbol (@HoffyBeisbol) seniorbeisbol@gmail.com www.profantasybaseball.com Spring Training baseball is finally here. Unfortunately, so are Spring Training injuries. I never understand why people would draft a month before the season starts, too many things can happen over the six weeks spent leading up to the moment when games start to count. Players win and lose position battles and rotation spots, the last few free-agents finally find teams, and most importantly, players get hurt. In the first week of games there have already been a few notable injuries. None of these guys are fantasy superstars, but all three find themselves on fantasy rosters. Now they find themselves in the infirmary. Alex Gordon - 3B/Kansas City Royals Gordon missed most of 2009 after having hip surgery, but looked fully recovered when camp opened last week. He was looking forward to regaining his job as the everyday 3rd baseman when broke his thumb sliding head first into 2nd base on Saturday and will now be out 3-4 weeks. His status for opening day is in doubt, but he should be back sometime in April. So far in his baseball career, Gordon has been mostly hype and potential. He has not yet displayed on the field what made him the number two overall pick in the 2005 Amateur Draft. A lot of experts were calling him a 'post-hype sleeper,' and were looking for him to post a 15/15 season this year. His thumb injury does not seem to be serious, but any kind of hand injury usually has a lingering effect on power numbers. I would guess the best thing we see out of Gordon is a .250/10/70/15 line. Joe Nathan - CL/Minnesota Twins Nathan has not been diagnosed with anything yet, but when a pitcher leaves camp to have his elbow examined, doctors rarely seem to give positive news. He had surgery last October to remove bone spurs and recently complained of elbow soreness after a throwing session. As a closer, Joe Nathan is one of the best in the game. A model of consistency since joining the Twins six years ago, he has averaged over 40 saves with an ERA of under 2.00 and a WHIP of under 1.00. We should hear more on his elbow in the next few days, but if he is out for any period of time Jon Rauch would make a good speculative add as he is the only guy in the bullpen with any closing experience. Russel Martin - C/Los Angeles Dodgers Martin will miss up to six weeks after an MRI revealed a pulled groin. Martin posted his worst numbers as a pro in 2009, sporting career lows in HR, RBI, R, AVG, and was one above his career low in stolen bases. He was primed for a bounce-back year, coming into camp after gaining nearly 20 pounds of muscle in the offseason. Groin injuries are tricky things. The only way to get better is to rest, and even then they are prone to reoccur. I would guess that this might limit Martin on the basepaths when he returns. This injury should drop him a few slots on the draft board at an already very thin catching position. His backups are Brad Ausmus and AJ Ellis, neither of whom are rosterable even if Martin misses any extended time. With less than four weeks to Opening Day there will assuredly be more Spring Training news. Keep checking back here for more updates.

Injury Bargains - Hitters Edition

Scout Hoffman (@hoffybeisbol) seniorbeisbol@gmail.com http://www.profantasybaseball.com/

Last week I discussed a few pitchers that are returning from an injury plagued 2009 season that are coming off draft boards at a bargain price. Drafting pitchers with injury risks is not for the faint of heart, a little tweak in the elbow or shoulder and you go from draft day genius to a GM scrambling to fill a roster spot. The recovery process for a hitter is not as daunting as the return for a pitcher.

Jose Reyes SS/NYM - The last thing you want from a speedster is a bad leg. Reyes was a top five pick in most leagues last year, and spent most of the year on the DL with a slightly torn hamstring. The best way to repair a torn muscle is rest, which Reyes has been doing since May. He claims to be back to 100% and could be a great bargain as he is currently going as the 22nd pick. If he is healthy you should see a .300/15HR/65RBI/100R/60SB line, which is worthy of a top five pick. Reyes is only 26 years old and has had sufficient time to recover from his injury, I expect big things from him this year.

Josh Hamilton OF/TEX - If you are looking for a guy who knows a thing or two about comebacks, Hamilton is your guy. Out of baseball and battling some inner demons for years, Hamilton burst back onto the scene in 2007 and put up MVP caliber numbers in 2008. In 2009 he was basically non-factor, missing time with various ailments and playing in only 89 games. At 28, Hamilton is still in his prime, and we have seen what he can do when he is healthy, but his health is not a sure thing. He is currently being drafted in the 5-6 round range, with an ADP of 53. He has the upside of a number one outfielder, but I still see some DL time in his future, with 130 games played being about what to expect. If you can get him as your number three outfielder and have the bench space for an injury replacement he could be a bargain in the 6th round.

Rickie Weeks 2B/MIL - Rickie Weeks started 2009 looking like he was going to finally put to use all of his potential. That was until late May when he tore a tendon sheath in his wrist. This is a similar injury to what Weeks went through on his other wrist in 2006. It may take him some time to regain his stroke, but could be an intriguing late pick if he rounds into form in the second half. He is being drafted around pick 200 so there is not much of an investment for the possibility of a good player at a thin position. I would not take him as my only 2nd baseman, but he would be a good guy to stash on your bench.

Injury Bargains

Fantasy baseball tends to be a ‘what have you done for me lately’ game. If a player puts together a few good games in a row he will be added by thousands of leagues across the country, but if he goes hitless in two games he will be tossed back into the free agent pool. Same goes for a fringe pitcher who throws seven shutout innings followed by a rough four inning outing.

Ask any owner who drafted Chris Carpenter in the 17^th round last year, taking a late round flier on a player coming off injury can pay off big. Of course, if you nabbed Francisco Liriano in the 7^th round last year, you know that it is no sure thing for a pitcher to regain his form post surgery.

These three pitchers started a combined eight games in 2009, but are all expected to be healthy to begin 2010. If they can stay healthy they could provide a great bargain in the later rounds.

Brandon Webb (Arizona Diamondbacks) – A former Cy Young award winner, Webb started only one game last year before having minor shoulder surgery last August. Webb was a top ten pitcher from 2006-08, compiling 56 wins and 555 Ks during that span. He threw off a mound last week for the first time since surgery and declared himself pain free. The Diamondbacks have every reason to be cautious with Webb as he returns from injury, but he insists he will be ready to go by opening day. Right now his ADP is 127 (28^th pitcher). If he proves healthy after a few Spring Training outings I would find it hard to believe that there will be 27 pitchers better by the end of the season.

Ben Sheets (Oakland A's) – Sheets did not don a uniform for all of 2009 after having surgery on his throwing elbow. The Oakland A’s gave him a very healthy contract for a guy who has had trouble staying healthy over the past few years. Sheets is a career .500 pitcher spending his entire career on a Brewers team that has usually been below that mark. His WHIP, ERA, and K/9 rate are solid when he is healthy, but health is not a sure bet for a power pitcher coming off major surgery. He is being drafted as the 51^st pitcher overall, meaning he is a 5^th starter on most fantasy teams, with the upside of being a solid number 3 starter.

Tim Hudson (Atlanta Braves) – The Braves were so confident in Hudson’s return from Tommy John surgery that they gave him a three-year extension this offseason. Although pitchers return in as little as nine months after Tommy John surgery, they tend to need at least 18 months before a full recovery. Hanson went under the knife in August of 2008, putting him at 20 months to start this season. 2009 saw him start only seven games down the stretch for the Braves, finishing with a 2-1 record and never allowing more than 4 ER in any start. Hudson has never piled up the strikeouts, but should be a good source of ratios and get 11-14 wins in 2010. Not bad for a guy who is being drafted 203^rd overall in recent drafts.

While pitchers tend to be much more risky when it comes to returning from injury, hitters can just as easily be draft day bargains. Next week I will review three hitters coming back from injuries that could produce some solid return on investment.

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Following the Offseason Moves

Senior Beisbol (@HoffyBaseball) seniorbeisbol@gmail.com http://www.profantasybaseball.com/

As we dig our way out of a seemingly countrywide snowstorm, one phrase warms my soul – Pitchers and catchers report.

Next week ballfields throughout Arizona and Florida will be filled with well over one thousand of baseball players vying for 750 spots on Major League rosters. From those rosters less than half of those players will end up on fantasy rosters, and as a fantasy GM, those are the ones that concern me.

Spring training in baseball is all about position battles, rotation spots, line-up juggling, and blending the free agents and rookies with the veteran talent. Fantasy baseball looks at many of the same things. The best fantasy GMs started preparation for the 2010 season months ago, but for those that haven’t, there are people like me who can catch you up.

One of the best ways to find sleepers and undervalued players is to pay attention to how the offseason changes have played out. I will take you on a quick spin around the league, starting with some of the players who switched teams this offseason.

Chone Figgins 2B/3B – From the Los Angeles Angels to the Seattle Mariners

- Figgins was the jewel of the free agent market according to many GMs. You will not see much of a change in the fantasy stats for Figgins after his move north. Normally you would be worried about the spacious SafeCo field, but Figgins is purely a singles hitter with good stolen base numbers, so you will not see any power drain.

John Lackey SP – From the Los Angeles Angels to the Boston Red Sox - Lackey switched coasts from one contender to another. He is going to a slightly more hitter friendly ballpark so there might be a slight bump in his ratios, but he will be backed by a more powerful lineup and a very solid defense. He will also no longer be counted on as the ‘ace’ of the staff and will be slotted in the third spot in the rotation making him probably the best number 3’s in the league. The main issue with Lackey over the last two seasons has been health, as he has spent time on the DL in both seasons. If he remains healthy he should be in for a solid year.

Adrian Beltre 3B – From the Seattle Mariners to the Boston Red Sox - Beltre is another player bothered by injuries and switching coasts. He is going from one of the best pitchers ballparks to one that favors the hitter. He is reportedly healthy and at 31 years old should still have enough pop in his bat to post a respectable offensive season, think .265/27/85. Mike Lowell is still on the Red Sox roster and may steal a few ABs, but the Red Sox have been trying to trade him all offseason.

Milton Bradley OF – From the Chicago Cubs to the Seattle Mariners - Bradley was supposed to be the spark plug that the Cubs needed to add some fire in the clubhouse and take them to their first World Series 1945. Instead his attitude and poor performance has him backing his bags to the Pacific Northwest. He is back in the American League where he had a career year in 2008, leading the league in OPS and OBP. Until he proves that he can keep his mind clear and mouth shut, he is no better than a 4^th outfielder on a fantasy roster.

Cliff Lee SP – From the Philadelphia Phillies to the Seattle Mariners - Part of a blockbuster trade this offseason, Lee is on his third team in 8 months. Normally a pitcher moving from the NL to the AL would see a jump in his ratios, but Lee only spent a few months with the Phillies. He is also moving to SafeCo, where flyballs go to die. I will continue to treat Lee as a Fantasy Ace.

Roy Halladay SP – From the Toronto Blue Jays to the Philadelphia Phillies - After years of rumors, Halladay finally leaves Canada to join the two time defending National League champion Phillies. Going to the homer happy ballpark in Philly would normally be a bad thing for a pitcher, but Halladay is special. He will continue to pile up the innings, wins and K’s.

Matt Capps RP – From the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Washington Nationals - Capps had two suitors chasing him this offseason, each offering different roles. The Cubs wanted him to pitch the 8^th inning for them, the Nats offered him the closing job, and that is what he took. In the fantasy world, the Nats job makes him relevant. He had some elbow issues last season, but he seems to be healthy now. Saves can come from anywhere and I look for Capps to a viable closer you can get on the cheap.

Mike Cameron OF – From the Milwaukee Brewers to the Boston Red Sox - Cameron will patrol CF for the Red Sox and will likely have another solid, underappreciated fantasy year. Fenway Park is a dream for a right-handed, dead-pull hitter like Cameron. He has been a virtual lock for 20-25 HR, 70-80 RBI, 15-20 SB, and a .250 average his entire career. Not flashy stats, but very respectable for a 3^rd fantasy outfielder that usually lasts longer in the draft than he should.

Rich Harden SP – From the Chicago Cubs to the Texas Rangers - Harden has the stuff of an ace, but a body made of balsa wood and rubberbands. The Cubs babied him, often giving him six days off between starts and only starting him on the road and at night. He has only surpassed 30 starts once, and never won more than 11 games. His K’s and the off-chance that he can finally stay healthy keep fantasy owners coming back for more. Just keep in mind if you draft him you are likely getting only ¾ of a season from him.

Curtis Granderson OF – From the Detroit Tigers to the New York Yankees - Granderson was moved to New York after the Tigers grew a bit tired of watching his average against lefties steadily drop over the past few seasons. The new Yankee stadium proved to be quite the bandbox in its first year, especially favoring lefties with power. Slotted at the top of a powerful lineup, he should see another year of 100+ runs, 25 HR, 70 RBI and 10-15 SB. If Granderson can adjust to the bright lights of New York he could be in for a great year in pinstripes.

Edwin Jackson SP – From the Detroit Tigers to the Arizona Diamondbacks - Jackson’s 2009 was a tale of two halves. Prior to the All-Star break he had a stellar ERA of 2.52. In the final months, it ballooned to 5.07. He ended the year with a respectable stat line, but is now gone from the pitcher friendly Comerica Park. Instead he will spend his summer pitching in Arizona where the ball flies in the summer. 2010 should end with a mix between first and second half Jackson, and ERA around 4, a K/9 rate of 6.5 and double digit wins. Don’t think of him as a 2^nd or even a 3^rd fantasy starter quite yet. Let someone else overpay for him in the draft.

Rafael Soriano RP – From the Atlanta Braves to the Tampa Bay Rays - Soriano was a part time closer with the Braves in 2009, splitting time with Mike Gonzalez. He will get a chance to be the closer in Tampa Bay, a spot that was and Achilles heel for the Rays in 2009. He has struggled with some elbow problems in his past, but was able to pitch virtually pain free last year. His high K/9 rate (12.13 in 2009) makes him a very valuable 2^nd tier closer if he secures the job and remains healthy.

Javier Vazquez SP – From the Atlanta Braves to the New York Yankees - ‘Big Game’ Javy is back in New York for his second go-round. His first stint in 2004 went so well, he was shipped out after only one season. This time is a bit different. He is not coming to be the ace; he is coming to be the 3^rd or 4^th starter. 2009 was his best year as a pro, posting his lowest ERA and WHIP and compiling 15 wins and 238 Ks. The move back to the AL should push his ratios back up to his career averages, but Vazquez should be a good source of wins and Ks.

Smoltz Not Done

Scout Hoffman http://www.profantasybaseball.com/

In a display of how much of a superior offensive league the American is versus the National, John Smoltz left his 8.32 ERA in Boston and headed to greener pastures in St. Louis. After being pummeled by stiff AL competition in eight starts, Smoltz pitched five solid innings against the Padres last weekend. He struck out nine hitters, walked none and allowed three hits and no runs.

Smoltz has a K/BB ratio of 42/9, so he clearly still has the stuff and the control to compete at a Major League level. He was being hit pretty hard while with the Red Sox and had an absurdly high BABIP of near .400, so that has nowhere to go but down. Back in the National League where he spent most of his 21 year career, he could put together five or six strong starts to help you during the final roto run or your head to head playoffs.

Rios On the Move

The true story behind how Alex Rios became a member of the White Sox may take some time to clear up, but regardless of how it happened he is done in Toronto. Placed on waivers at the end of last week by the Blue Jays, Rios was subsequently claimed by the White Sox. Most baseball insiders believed that this was an attempt to block him from being claimed by another team and that the Sox had no real interest in Rios and his hefty contract. The Blue Jays decided to let Rios walk away and got no compensation other than no longer having to pay the underachieving outfielder. Of course this is a fantasy website, so we are not here to discuss contracts and waivers, we want to know fantasy impact. Rios is full of upside, scouts have been saying for years that he could be a 25/25 guy or maybe even a 30/30 guy if he can put all his tools together. Maybe a change of scenery will be just what he needs. Rios has been hitting in the 6-hole in a decent offensive lineup in a middle of the road hitters ballpark. I could see him slotted in several different places in the White Sox lineup. He will most likely be playing center and taking over for Scott Podsednik, so it is only natural to think that he will take over the leadoff spot in the batting order. He has spent a good amount of time batting leadoff and has the speed and contact skills to hit there. Of course Podsednik has been a catalyst for the White Sox offense and certainly will never be used as a defensive replacement so he is hardly the ideal fourth outfielder. He could hit down in the order, 6th or 7th, but that would mean the Sox would be sitting Jermaine Dye, there best offensive player, or Carlos Quentin who is starting to heat up after missing most of the year with a foot injury. DH is an option for one of the current Sox outfielders, but that would leave Jim Thome with no place to go. As long as he gets everyday at bats, expect his numbers to get a slight bump. He is moving into a pennant race in a weaker division and gets to play his home games in a hitters park. Rios' departure leaves a hole in the Toronto outfiled that will likely be filled by youngster Travis Snider. Snider spent the beginning of the year with the big club but was sent down after struggling for the first month or so. He has hit the ball well in the minors most of the year and is probably available on the waiver wire for those in deep or AL-Only leagues.

This Bud's For You

Scout Hoffman www.profantasybaseball.com Bud Norris has probably seen more than one artilce written about him with that title, and with his hot start to his career, this one may not be the last. Of course pitching in Texas with a last name of Norris there will probably be a few Chuck Norris references too. Norris was listed as the number two prospect in the Houston Astros system and was given his first Major League start when Roy Oswalt was skipped due to injury. He held the Cardinals hitless into the 6th inning and fanned five while earning his first victory. His next start he held the Brewers in check allowing only two runs through six innings. Through 16 innings Norris has 16 strikeouts and those numbers are in line with his career Minor League stats so look for those K's to continue over the last two months of the seasons. He has also allowed only eight hits and three runs, so from the surface there appears to be no downside. The real concern with Norris so far is the ten walks issued, and that can be expected with younger pitchers. As long as Norris has a rotation spot and can continue to improve his control, he is worth a pick-up in deep mixed and NL-Only leagues.

Holland Shines Again

by Scout Hoffman www.profantasybaseball.com I have said before that I would never recommend a Texas Rangers pitcher. Especially a rookie pitcher in the sweltering heat of the Texas sun, but Derek Holland has turned in two great outings in his last three turns. On July 30th against the Mariners, Holland struck out 10 Mariners and allowed only two hits and one run in 8.2 innings. Today he fanned 8 in a three hitter versus the Angels. Unfortunately he sandwiched those two starts around a clunker at Oakland. The southpaw Holland was a 25th round pick in 2006 and has shot up through the Rangers system with an electric fastball that has topped out at 98 mph. He pairs that with a plus slider and improving change. As will all rookie pitchers there will be some bumps in the road, but Holland has shown he can be dominant. His overall numbers for 2009 are not that impressive, but the waiver wire is full of 'what have you done for me lately' guys and Holland could be a solid matchup play for the stretch run.

Injury Returns

by Scout Hoffman

http://www.profantasybaseball.com/

Two players carrying a boatload of preseason hype have returned from long injury layoffs recently. Alex Gordon (25% Yahoo / 54% ESPN) returned from hip surgery, and Ryan Doumit (66% Yahoo / 65% ESPN) is back from wrist surgery. Both players were initially thought to be out for much longer, but have come back in time to make a fantasy impact for the stretch run. Doumit appeared out of nowhere last year to become a top 10 fantasy catcher, and he was drafted as such this spring. He started off a bit slow and was then sidelined for 12 weeks with what was first rumored to be a season ending wrist injury.

He has hit three homers in the past three games so there appears to be no lingering effects of the injury. His average should rise as he starts to pile up the ABs and he gets more comfortable at the dish. Look for double digit homeruns, and an average around .280 for the remainder of the year. The Pirates have traded away almost their entire opening day roster and are probably not done dealing, so there is no telling what kind of AAA lineup will be surrounding Doumit come August 1st. His runs and RBI may take a bit of a hit because of the lack of production around him. Alex Gordon suffered a similar hip injury to another Alex who mans the hot corner. Unlike A-Rod, there was very little hype surrounding the return of the 2008 sleeper pick. The Royals haven’t seen a pennant race in years so there is no reason to believe that Gordon was rushed back and is at further risk of injury.

Gordon only played in seven games prior to missing three months and was not exactly tearing the cover off the ball in those games. He has four hits in his first five games since returning last week and has managed to raise his average nearly 100 points. If you have room on your bench he is not a bad player to stash, as he has showed flashes in the past of what made him the number two overall pick in 2005.

Just by being a catcher, I see Doumit having more fantasy value than Gordon. The early power returns shows me that Doumit can return to claim his top 10 catcher position for the remainder of the season. There are still plenty of owners who are waiting for Gordon to break out, and I could see it happening next year, but I do not see him as much more than a ocean deep league, back-up infielder for the rest of the year.

Dempster to the DL

by Scout Hoffman http://www.profantasybaseball.com/ Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Ryan Dempster just hit the 15 day DL with a broken right big toe. There was some initial speculation that he hurt himself kicking a groundball in his last start, but the truth came out in his press conference this afternoon. Dempster tried to jump out of the dugout over the railing to celebrate the Cubs victory on Sunday. Apparently he slipped a bit, landed funny on his toe and fell on his face. Aside from the giggling from the mental image of a highly paid athlete falling on his face, what is the fantasy fallout from the injury. Well, Dempster was drafted on average in the 11th round as a top 30 pitcher. Most people had expectations of him building on his 2008 numbers of 17-6 with a 2.96 ERA and 187 Ks. He has disappointed thus far posting a 5-5 record an ERA of 4.09, but does have a respectable 89 Ks in 105 innings. With Dempster likely out for at least a month the Cubs are in need of a fifth starter. They recalled Kevin Hart for a spot start tomorrow, but he would not a make even the deepest of fantasy rosters. The more intriguing idea is moving Sean Marshall from the bullpen where he has been flourishing as a lefty specialist, to the starting rotation. Marshall has allowed only one run in his last twelve outings and aside from a few rough starts in May has looked good all season. He features a big swooping curveball and has shown in the past he is capable of putting up some good K numbers. With Aramis Ramirez back for the Cubs their offense should heat up as well and give a bit more run support which should equal a few wins for the lanky lefty. If you are a Dempster owner or in a deep league looking for a few decent starts, Sean Marshall is someone to keep an eye on.

Phillies Call Up Another Pitching Prospect

by Scout Hoffman

http://www.profantasybaseball.com/

The Phillies can’t escape the injury imp and are in need of another starting pitcher this week. Antonio Bastardo will have his miss his next start with some arm soreness and the Phillies be looking to their top ranked prospect to take his place.

In rankings release prior to Spring Training, Carlos Carrasco was the 28^th ranked prospect in all of baseball. The 22 year old righty does not have stats that jump off the page at you, but everyone who has seen him pitch seems to have the same reaction. He has electric stuff.

He has a fastball that is in the low 90s, but has been clocked as high as 95. His out-pitch is his changeup which has a very good sink to it. In order to be successful as a starter at the Major League level he will need to develop his curve to give him a third pitch he can throw for strikes.

Over five plus Minor League seasons, Carrasco has an uninspiring 4.06 ERA and a 43-42 record. He is 4-7 so far this year and his ERA is still above 4.00, so those numbers cannot be blamed for some early career troubles. He has been better lately, turning in five solid starts in his last seven outings.

So what makes Carrasco an attractive fantasy option? Strikeouts, and lots of them. Over the last three seasons Carrasco has had a K/9 rate of nearly 9.0, or one strikeout per inning. He has managed to keep his BBs down, which tends to be a problem with young strikeout pitchers.

Playing in the Philly bandbox will not be kind to his ERA or WHIP, but he should get run support and pile up a few victories. Strikeout numbers tend to translate well when pitchers are called up, so if you are in dire need of K’s and can take a small hit in the ration categories, Carrasco may be your guy.

Keep in mind his call up may not be permanent as he is taking Bastardo’s place this week, but if the Phillies want to stay atop the NL East, they can’t keep trotting out Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton and their 5+ ERAs.

Fill In The Blanks

At 6'6" 285, Padres new call-up Kyle Blanks, is a mountain of a man. A firstbaseman by trade, he will quickly become one of the largest outfielders in the bigs when he mans left-field for the San Diego. He is certainly not being called up for his defense (or his hair - check his Yahoo Profile, it is quite the 'do), Blanks is the Padres top hitting prospect and has been raking in the Minors Leauges for several years.

Blanks played 66 games this year for the Portland Beavers producing a .283 / 12 HR / 38 RBI line. Those numbers line up with his prior two years when he went for 20+ HRs, 100+ RBI, and hit over .300, so he should produce some deep league numbers over the last 100 games.

He should slide into a run producing spot in the Padres line-up. Of course the Padres have proved that they are a bit offensively challenged and Petco Park is not exactly a hitters haven, so his run producing opportunities will not be abundant. He has a decent K/AB rate for a power hitter of around 1/5, and that is usually a good indicator of how Minor League numbers translate to Major League numbers.

2009 has not proved to be a great year for rookie call ups, and I do not expect Blanks to put up Braun or Longoria rookie numbers, but he should stand to be a decent option as a fourth outfielder in deep mixed or NL only leagues.

Goodbye Tom, Hello Tommy

by Scout Hoffman (seniorbeisbol@gmail.com) http://www.profantasybaseball.com/ In a bit of a suprising move, future Hall Of Famer Tom Glavine was released by the Atlanta Braves. If Glavine can prove himself healthy, the 300 game winner will likely find a job somewhere in the National League. Wherever he goes he will surely not provide nearly the fantasy impact as his successor, Tommy Hanson. Hanson is the prize pitcher in the Braves system. He is a 22 year old, 22nd round draft pick from 2005 who has dominated at every levelds. His 6'5, 220 pound frame is a prototypical of a power pitcher, and that is just what Hanson is. His fastball touches 94 mph, his curveball has been called one of the best in the Minor Leagues, and he has a plus changeup. His Minor League numbers are nothing short of spectacular this year. He has a 1.69 ERA and an amazing 90 stikeouts and only 17 walks in 66.1 innings. He has struck out more than a batter per inning in every level of Minor League ball he has pitched, and was the talk of the Arizona Fall League last year as he carved up hitters to the tune of a .105 batting average against. This kid is the real deal. If for some reason he is still available in your league he is worth a waiver claim in any format. He will make his Major League debut on Saturday at home against Milwaukee, and should be in the rotation for the remainder of the year. His addition sends the other Braves top prospect, Kris Medlen, to the bullpen for the time being. Hanson should have a similar impact as David Price to the fantasy world. Expect high K numbers and respectable ratios. With the addition of Nate McLouth and the subtraction of K-machine Jordan Schafer, the Braves offense should provide Hanson with ample run support to pick up double digit wins over the last four months of the season.

Two Solid Pitching Debuts

by Scout Hoffman (seniorbeisbol@gmail.com) http://www.profantasybaseball.com/ There were two high level pitching prospects that made their Major League debuts on Tuesday evening. Vin Mazzaro of Oakland and Antonio Bastardo of Philadelphia both got their first shot at taking the bump in the bigs, and both ended their evenings with their first Major League win. Vin Mazzaro, a 22 year old righty, was touted earlier this year as part of the new ‘Big Three’ in Oakland. Long gone are the original three, Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito. Mazzaro, along with Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson are being called the ‘Little Three’ by Oakland media. Mazzaro was the last to make his Major League Debut, joining his teammates Tuesday evening against the Chicago White Sox. Mazzaro did not disappoint, picking up a win in 6.1 shutout innings against the hot White Sox in the hitter friendly US Cellular Field. He struck out only one batter and did walk four, so as far as debuts go, it was far from great. Vin Mazzaro was very solid in the hitting heavy PCL league in this year. His ERA was a solid 2.40 with a K/9 rate of 7.0. Those numbers are in line with his 2008 numbers as he also had an ERA below 3.00 and a K/9 rate of 6.9. He did a good job limiting his walks in the minors and will need to continue to do so since he does not appear to be a big time strikeout pitcher. Mazzaro will certainly be handled with kid gloves during his time in the rotation this year as the A’s continue their perennial youth movement. Oakland is falling further behind in the AL West race and it would not surprise me to see them limit the innings of their youngsters towards the end of the season. Also, if Justin Duchsherer ever returns from injury one of their future stars will head back to AAA. He is someone to keep your eye on in AL-Only and deep mixed league formats, but he should be grabbed in dynasty leagues. Pitching in Oakland will keep his ratios lower than most rookies, but with a poor offense behind him, I do not expect many wins from Mazzaro. Antonio Bastardo drew the tough task of facing Jake Peavy in San Diego for his Major League debut. The Phillies got to Peavy early and he was pulled after one inning complaining of flu-like symptoms. Bastardo was staked to an early 4-0 lead and cruised through six innings allowing only one run on a homerun by Adrian Gonzalez. He struck out five batters and only allowed one walk and four hits. Bastardo was recalled this week to take the place of Brett Myers who may be lost for the season after hip surgery last week. With the Phillies top pitching prospect, Carlos Carrasco, struggling at AAA so far this year Bastardo will be given a few starts to try and earn the fifth starter spot. Between AA and AAA this season, Bastardo has posted a miniscule ERA of 1.90. He has 51 stikeouts in 47.1 innings to go along with only 10 walks. One of his major problems in 2008 was the number of free passes he issues, walking 47 in 97.1 innings. His high home run rate, allowing 15 homers in only 19 games, was also a concern. Some of that could have to do with some arm troubles he was having last year which he is no longer suffering from. So far this year he has been able to cut both of those numbers down significantly, and if he can continue to do this he could be a fantasy contributor for the rest of the year. Bastardo is another guy that I would not waste a high waiver on in a shallow league, but NL-Only leagues and deep mixed leagues should keep their eye on this kid. The Phillies score a lot of runs so he should be in line for some good win totals, but keep in mind that their home ballpark has shown to be a bit of a launching pad. If you are chasing wins (which can be very dangerous) and K’s, Bastardo could be a good option for you.

Well, Well, Wells

by Scout Hoffman (SeniorBeisbol@gmail.com) http://www.profantasybaseball.com/ Take a look at Randy Wells' 0-2 record and you may not think that the Chicago Cubs rookie pitcher is anything special. He was a 38th round draft pick in the 2002 draft, and was by no means a top prospect in the Cubs system. You can even ask him and he will tell you that he doesn't think he has 'ace' stuff. He said he doesn't think he even has fourth or fifth starter stuff, but what he does have is confidence. Unfortunately that confidence has not transferred over to the win column. Wells has certainly pitched well enough through five starts to earn a few victories, but he can blame a poor bullpen and lack of run support for keeping him out of the win column. Wells made his Major League Debut on May 8th and left with a 2-0 lead after throwing five innings of shutout ball against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Cubs lost that game 3-2 on a Ryan Braun home run. His next start in Houston he threw six shutout innings and watched a four run, 9th inning lead disappear at the hands of Cubs closer Kevin Gregg. Wells threw seven innings in each of his next two starts allowing two and three runs against San Diego and Los Angeles. The Cubs lost those games 2-1 and 3-1. Wells did everything he could in his most recent start, not allowing a hit until there were two outs in the bottom of the 7th inning against the Atlanta Braves. He even added an RBI single for good measure. He was lifted in the 8th inning after allowing a Garret Anderson homer and Martin Prado reached on an error. His 5-1 lead was blown again in the 9th as Kevin Gregg allowed a game tying homer to Jeff Francoeur. The Cubs ultimately lost the game in the 12th. Without a Major League win, what makes Randy Wells fantasy relevant? Through five turns, he has a sparkling ERA of 1.69 and a WHIP of 0.97. He has struck out 27 batters and walked only seven in 32 innings. His career minor league numbers of 8.7 K/9 and 3.74 ERA suggest that these numbers are legit. His ERA will certainly rise; probably to somewhere in the high 3's, but the strikeout numbers should stay constant. Once the Cubs get healthy and start hitting hopefully he will find the elusive win column on several occasions. Although his rotation spot is not guaranteed, he has pitched well enough to keep his spot when Rich Harden returns from the DL. His main competition for the spot is Sean Marshall, but the Cubs would prefer to keep him as a lefty in the bullpen. Wells is a must own in NL-Only formats and is proving himself to be mixed league worthy with every confident trip to the mound.

Jake Fox In the Clubhouse

by Scout Hoffman (seniorbeisbol@gmail.com) http://www.profantasybaseball.com/ The Cubs made a handful of roster moves this morning to try and shake up their slumping ball club. The three players brought up were Andres Blanco, Jason Waddell, and Jake Fox. Blanco and Waddell will likely provide no fantasy impact unless you are playing in a 'Chicago Only' fantasy league. Jake Fox on the other hand is a bit of a curious story. Fox is a third round pick out of the University of Michigan in 2003. He has spent the last seven seasons toiling in the Cubs minor league system, even getting a three game cup of coffee with the big club in 2007. At 26 he is a bit old to still be considered a prospect, but there are reasons he has not made it to the big leagues prior to now. Fox certainly can hit, but his defense has been a bit of a liability. He has played nearly everywhere on the diamond over his minor league career. Fox started as a catcher, but has since spent time at both corner infield and outfield positions. Usually when a guy is asked to play five different positions it means that he is not very good at any of them. It will be interesting to see where Lou Piniella puts him in the line-up. He has not caught on a regular basis for a few years, so I doubt he will be subbing for the slumping Geovany Soto. First base is already a logjam with Derrek Lee healthy (for now) and Micah Hoffpauir proving worthy of steady at-bats. Third base is not a place where you want to put a guy who has some glove troubles, just ask Milwaukee about Ryan Braun or Mat Gamel. As for the corner outfield spots, Milton Bradley is finally starting to hit and Alfonso Soriano has been the Cubs most consistant hitter this season. Piniella has mentioned on occasion that Soriano could find his way back to the infield, but that would make the Cubs arguably the worst defensive team in the Major Leagues. Take a look at the numbers that Fox has put up in AAA this year and you will see why Piniella will need to find some at bats for the 27 year old slugger. Through 40 games, Fox is leading all of the Minor Leagues in HRs (17), RBI (50), and average (.432). His 2008 numbers of 31 HR / 105 RBI / .287 avg prove that these numbers are not a fluke. Fox smacked an RBI double today in his only at-bat as a pinch hitter in the bottom of the 8th, so it looks like he took his hot bat to the bigs. It would not surprise me if he is being called up to showcase his hitting for a future trade to the American League where he can settle in as a career DH. I would wait to see if Fox gets some regular at-bats prior to picking him up off the waiver wire, but if he can find a place to play in the field he could provide some offensive punch for the remainder of the season.

The Future Is Now For Wieters

Scout Hoffman (seniorbeisbol@gmail.com) http://www.profantasybaseball.com/ With two words, Baltimore Orioles GM Andy MacPhail has brought joy to thousands of fantasy GMs. 'It's time.' Uber-hyped prospect Matt Wieters will be called up to join Baltimore this Friday. If he is still available in your league, grab him; but note that it is time to find a more competitive league. As a fellow member of the card carrying 'Wieters Watchers,' I have highly anticipated his arrival. Even though we were told from the get-go that Wieters would not be called up until June 1st, there wasn't a morning that went by that I didn't check my squad, hoping to see a player note next to young Mr. Wieters name. Now that we have a date set, what should we expect from the switch hitting catcher? Through 39 games for the Norfolk Tides, Wieters has an average of .305, 5 HRs, and 30 RBI. His 2008 numbers were very impressive for his first year of professional ball. He will most likely be inserted in the middle of a top heavy Baltimore lineup. With Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Brian Roberts, and Aubrey Huff setting the table, Wieters should have ample RBI chances. The hitters in the bottom of the order have struggled this year, but should still bring him home enough for Wieters to supply solid numbers in four of the five standard categories. Expect an average around .300, HRs in the teens, 60-75 RBI and 50-60 runs. Wieters has been touted as a 'can't miss' prospect by the entire fantasy world for several months now. If he lives up to at least a portion of the hype, he could easily be a top 10 catcher by the end of they year, and that is without playing in the first quarter of the season. Keep in mind that there are plenty of hyped prospects that come up and fall on their face. The Orioles have done his fantasy owners a favor by putting a date on his arrival, as he will carry tremendous trade value over the next few days. If it is me, I am holding on and enjoying the ride.

Peavy Refuses To Change His Socks

by Scout Hoffman (seniorbiesbol@gmail.com) http://www.profantasybaseball.com/ Jake Peavy appeared to finally be heading to Chicago. In a bit of a shocker though, he was rumored to be heading to the Southside. The Padres and the White Sox agreed on a deal to send the power armed righty to the Midwest in exchange for four minor leaguers. Surprisingly, Gordan Beckham was not one of them. With a full no-trade clause Peavy has the final say on any trade, and he exercised that right by vetoing the trade this evening. Peavy owners breathed a sigh of relief as he will continue to pitch in the cozy PETCO Park. The fantasy implications of this deal would have been huge for those in NL and AL-Only leagues. The team with the number one waiver priority in and AL-Only league would have been awarded a huge early season prize. Peavy would have been undoubtedly worth the waiver claim even heading to hitter friendly US Cellular Field. Even with this deal not being done, it reinforces the fact that the ace will be dealt soon. Peavy will be leaving one of the most pitcher friendly stadiums where he has compiled a lifetime record of 36-26 with a 2.71 ERA and 644 strikeouts in 578 innings. His ERA jumps a full point when he leaves San Diego although his K-rate stays nearly the same. With the exception of 2006 (WBC year), Peavy has kept his ERA under 3.00 over the last five seasons. His win totals have only climbed over 15 only once, and that can be blamed one main thing; lack of run support. The Padres are again at the bottom of the league in runs scored in 2009, so wherever he ends up, he can expect an increase in run support. Peavy has said over and over again that he would like to remain in the NL, so NL-Only owners should not be too worried about losing their ace. He does make an intriguing trade chip for those in mixed leagues. His ERA will surely rise when he leaves town, but the wins could increase as he will most likely only OK a trade to a contender. For now he remains a Padre, but this is a situation that his owners will need to keep an eye on.

Looking For Pitching Help?

by Scout Hoffman (seniorbeisbol@gmail.com) www.profantasybaseball.com When you check box scores a bad pitching outing always looks a lot worse than a bad hitting day. Even All-Stars have 0-4 days throughout the season and no fantasy owner would bat an eye, but if a pitcher lets up seven runs in four innings, that 15.75 ERA will send them to the waiver wire. Don’t get me started on Troy Percival and his 108.00 ERA on Thursday. If you are like most fantasy owners, you are searching the wires for some starting pitching help. Most everyone available will have their flaws, but if used properly they could become great assets to your fantasy squad. All three of these pitchers are available in over half of Yahoo and ESPN leagues. Jorge De La Rosa – Colorado Rockies

If I offered you stats of 15 innings, 11 hits, 3 ER, and 22 K’s, I am sure you would expect two wins. This is what makes wins so hard to chase in fantasy baseball. De La Rosa would have been 0-2 in those two starts if it weren’t for a 9th inning bailout by Brad Hawpe in his most recent start. As it stands, De La Rosa is 0-3 on the season, but the ratios and strikeout numbers show a mixed league worthy pitcher. He has an ERA of 3.16, a WHIP of 1.18, and 45 K’s in 42.2 innings. His career ratios are much higher, but the strikeouts have always been there. Let us not forget that he plays his home games at the hitter’s haven that his Coors Field. While his 2008 numbers actually show his home numbers a touch better than his road numbers, I still don’t trust the thin Colorado air. De La Rosa is in his third year of getting consistent starts, so it is OK to expect growth, but I do not see a guy who can shave two runs off his ERA. He is a guy who I would add only if you need strikeouts and have some low ratio pitchers to hide his WHIP and ERA. Randy Wolf – Los Angeles Dodgers Since being acquired by Houston last year in an odd deadline deal, Wolf has proven to be a very solid starter. He is 8-3 with an ERA of 3.25 and 101 strikeouts in 119.1 innings of work since August of 2008. Dodger Stadium is a pitcher friendly park, and even without Manny Ramirez the Dodgers still provide a solid lineup. It doesn’t hurt that the NL West isn’t exactly full of powerful offenses. Wolf has a career ERA of 4.21, so look for the ERA to rise a bit, but it should stay under 4.00. He has always been a good source of strikeouts and that should continue. The Dodgers should provide him with enough run support to pick up 10+ wins from here on out. Dave Bush – Milwaukee Brewers There is something to be said about sleeping in your own bed. Dave Bush personifies this. His home/road splits over his career are borderline ridiculous. At home he is nine games over .500 with a respectable 3.82 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and a K/9 of 6.33. When he hits the road it is a whole different story. Bush is ten games under .500, his ERA balloons to 5.21, his WHIP to 1.32, and his K/9 drops to 5.82. This season Bush is off to a solid start, posting a 2-0 record through eight games. Six of his seven starts have been quality (3 or fewer ER in 6 or more IP), and his K/BB ratio is a very solid 3.6:1. He has held both his home and road ERA under 3.90 for an overall ERA of 3.83. Eight games is a very small sample size, but in 2009 Bush looks like he may have figured something out. Or maybe the Brewers have realized his affinity for home cooking, giving him five home starts to only two road starts. Either way, Bush is a pitcher that you can feel very comfortable starting when he is at Miller Park, but until gives you a few more solid road starts, I would only use him in favorable matchups on the road.

Braves Call Up Top Pitching Prospect

By Scout Hoffman (seniorbeisbol(at)gmail.com) profantasybaseball.com With the realization that Jo-Jo Reyes and his 6+ ERA were not long for the rotation, the Atlanta Braves have sent him to the bullpen. This move makes room for highly touted prospect, Kris Medlen to make his major league debut with a start on Tuesday at home against Colorado. Sorry Tommy Hansen enthusiasts, it is not your time yet. Medlen was voted the Braves number nine prospect in their system by Baseball America prior to this season. His numbers in AAA this year have done nothing to discount this statement. For the International League Gwinnet Braves, Medlen has posted a microscopic ERA of 0.96 and fanned 44 in while going 5-0 over six starts. His 2008 stats were equally impressive as he struck out 120 hitters in 120.1 innings with an ERA of 3.52 in AA ball. At 5’10” he is not your prototypical power armed righty, but Roy Oswalt and Tim Lincecum have proved that you do not need to be 6’6” to bring mid to low 90’s heat and be successful. Scouts say that he has command of three plus pitches; a fastball, a curveball, and a change. He has put a lot of work into developing his change and if he can use it effectively in the majors he could become a solid pitcher, but not quite an ace. Throughout the years, the Braves farm system has certainly proved that they can develop pitchers, so it should come as no shock that they have two potential studs coming up this close together. Medlen is certainly worth a grab in all NL-Only leagues and larger mixed leagues for those in need of strikeouts. Tommy Hansen has the better upside between the two starters, and no one knows what will happen when and if Tom Glavine returns healthy. I cannot see both Hansen and Medlen in the rotation this year (barring injuries) because that would mean sending Kenshin Kawakami and his eight million dollar salary to the bullpen. There is a chance that Medlen could be sent to the bullpen or to the minors, so if you do grab him you will have to monitor his situation closely.

Manny Being A Cheater

Scout Hoffman profantasybaseball.com In some shocking news out of Los Angeles this morning, Manny Ramirez is being suspended 50 games for testing positive for a banned substance. Up until now Ramirez has not been linked in any way to performance-enhancing drugs. It has been reported that it was not a steroid, but a prescribed drug for a medical condition. Nonetheless, he is out of the lineup until July 3rd. This obviously puts a drastic downturn on Ramirez’s fantasy value, but who else does it hurt? Andre Either has benefited greatly from having Manny around him in the lineup. Since Manny joined the Dodgers last summer, Either has hit at a .320 clip with 15 HRs and 58 RBI in about 300 ABs. In the 350 ABs before Manny became a Dodger Either hit .274 with 11 HRs and 46 RBI. Some of the increase in numbers can surely be attributed to his growth as a hitter, but a large part has to do with pitchers giving him better pitchers to hit with Manny protecting him. I would expect Ethier’s average, runs and RBI to see a slight dip over the next two months. Orlando Hudson is another Dodger whose fantasy value could take a hit. Hitting ahead of Manny, the O-Dog was on pace for over 100 runs, nearly 100 RBI, and is hitting .342, nearly 60 points above his career average. You can expect those numbers to decrease while Manny is serving his suspension. The entire Dodger pitching staff will certainly miss Manny. The Dodgers are first in the NL in runs scored and that number will most likely drop without the slugger in the three spot in the order. Chavez Ravine has always been a pitchers park so I do not anticipate a drop in ratios for the pitchers, but they may miss out on a few wins. Not all fantasy hope is lost for the Dodgers for the next 50 games. Xavier Paul will be called up to take his roster spot, he is off to a solid start in AAA, but I do not think he will see everyday playing time. Juan Pierre may stand to see an increase in playing time, so those of you who need runs and SBs, he may be a good two month rental. Pierre could be pushed into the leadoff spot and bump Rafael Furcal and Orlando Hudson down a spot in the order. Matt Kemp who has been buried in the 7th hole will may be pushed up in the order and could see an increase in RBI chances. Everyone knows that Manny Ramirez can be a both a positive and negative force in the clubhouse for a team. It will be interesting to see how Manny and the Dodgers react not only during the 50 games suspension, but when he returns. Will he go back to being the force he has been for his three months in Dodger Blue, or will he revert to the guy who played his way out of Boston for personal gain. Only time will tell.

Future Fantasy Royalty

By Mike Hoffman Profantasybaseball.com The Kansas City Royals are 233 games below .500 this decade. That is an average season record of 66-96. This year however they are off to a much better start and a lot of that can be attributed to solid pitching. Everyone knows about Zack Greinke and his 5-0 record, but did you know the Royals have another pitcher with a 5-0 record hidden on their roster? Luke Hochevar is pitching in the AAA Pacific Coast League for the Omaha Royals. The PCL is traditionally an offense heavy league, which makes Hochevar’s numbers all the more impressive. He is 5-0 with a 1.13 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 32 innings. The former number one overall pick in 2006 is biding his time down on the farm just waiting for the Royals to send Sir Sidney Ponson back to the ‘Netherlands.’ Hochevar spent just over half of 2008 with the big club in Kansas City with limited success. Many people in the organization felt that he was brought up too soon and was not ready to perform on the big league level despite being 25 years old and pitching four years for the University of Tennessee. His poor record and high ERA were to be expected from a rookie, but the low number of strikeouts was a bit surprising. After striking out 200 hitters in 207 innings in the minors, Hochevar only fanned 72 hitters in 129 innings last year. This was part of the reason that he started 2009 in the Minor Leagues. One of the things the organization wanted him to work on was using both sides of the plate with more consistency, hoping that this would lead to more strikeouts and more outs in general. The Royals manager Trey Hillman has given the temporary vote of confidence to Ponson, so there is no telling when Hochevar will get the call, but he is definitely someone to keep on your radar in all mixed leagues. If the Royals stay competitive I cannot see them continuing to trot out Ponson every five days while Hochevar lights up Omaha. He is available in 99% of Yahoo and ESPN leagues, so if you have the room in a deep mixed league, stash him for now and he could be a solid 2nd half starter for your squad. Expect respectable ratios, (ERA in the high 3’s/low 4’s, WHIP around 1.33, and a K Rate of 6.5/9) and if the Royals stay in the race, he could pick up double digit wins if he gets 20+ starts.

Time to Phil Up?

By Mike Hoffman

Profantasybaseball.com

The Yankees went out and spent $200 million on pitching this offseason to shore up their staff. The Yankees did what the Yankees do; throw money at the problem instead of trying to build from within. The rotation was supposed to be CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Chein-Ming Wang, and Joba Chamberlain. This pretty much signaled the end (for now) of the home grown youngsters that the Yankees have been hyping for years. Philip Hughes and Ian Kennedy were suddenly stuck in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre waiting for the trade deadline to be packaged together in a deal for another aging vet that brings a twinkle to Hank Steinbrenner’s eye. Then the season started. CC is off to his customary slow start. AJ is proving to be what he was with Toronto and Florida, sometimes dazzling, sometimes garbage. Pettitte has proved his worth. Chamberlain is transitioning into a starting role quite well. Wang, has just been awful, and has since been placed on the DL. This opened a spot for the post-hype sleeper, Philip Hughes. In 2007, Hughes was supposed to save the Yankees, not only on the mound, but in the front office’s wallet. At 20 years old, he was going to start the year in the rotation and not carry a nine digit price tag. He shined in the Minors in 2005-2006, posting a 21-7 record with an ERA of 2.18 while striking out 261 batters in 232.1 innings. In his second start of 2007 he pulled a hamstring and was out for three months. He ended the year with a respectable 5-3 record. In 2008, he was again slowed by injuries, missing significant time with an oblique injury. Why should you target Phil Hughes? His overall career numbers are not all that great and he has missed major time to injury the past two seasons. That does not sound like a pitcher that I would want on my fantasy roster. Here is why you want him. He was once a highly touted Yankee prospect. He is still only 22 years old and is off to a very strong start in AAA (3-0, 1.86 ERA, 19 Ks). He has the top prospect pedigree and some Major League experience. The Yankees are in the top 10 in scoring so he will have some run support. He was drafted too high in 2007, and again in 2008. This year he was likely forgotten, so he is available on the waiver wire. A few strong starts (he just finished a six inning gem against the Tigers as I write this), and all of that hype will come back. Nothing makes fantasy trades more lopsided than hype. I am not saying that you have to trade him. You can certainly hold onto him as he just may put up stellar numbers all season. I am saying that he may have more value in a trade than he would on your roster for the rest of the year. Just keep in mind that his spot is not secure in the rotation if Wang comes back healthy. He has missed major time to injury each of the last two years, and he does not exactly have great Major League numbers. (I feel like I have said that before)

Orioles Bring Up Top Prospect

Before you go rushing to plug Matt Weiters into your starting lineup, or to see if he is still available in your league, I am not talking about the future of catching as we know it. I am talking about a batterymate of Weiters and the Orioles 2008 Jim Palmer Minor League Pitcher of the Year award winner Brad Bergesen. Bergesen will start Tuesday against the Chicago White Sox after Radhames Liz was optioned to AAA Norfolk. Bergesen is a 23 year old control freak that does not project to be a top of the rotation starter. In 165.1 innings between AA and High A last year he compiled a 16-7 record. Bergesen issued only 33 free passes, but paired that with an uninspiring 87 strikeouts. He managed an ERA of 3.10 and a tidy WHIP of 1.16 so his ratios may make him fantasy relevant. Through two starts this year Bergesen is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA. Looking at his numbers he appears to be a guy who pitches to contact and relies on his defense behind him. Baltimore has an average defense and plays in the hitter friendly Camden Yards, so I would be hesitant to rush out and grab Bergesen in anything but a deep AL-Only league. Let him get a few starts under his belt and see how his numbers translate at the big league level before adding him to your roster. Scout Hoffman www.profantasybaseball.com

Things I Know...

And some I think I know. I know the first three weeks aren’t even one tenth of the season. It is however enough to notice some trends. Here are a few of those trends that I believe will continue, some that will change soon, and how to make the best of the hot and cold starts. I know Aaron Hill is healthy again. He also just turned the magic age of 27. He will finish the year among the top seven 2nd baseman. Most of 2008 was lost to post concussion syndrome for Hill. His 2007 numbers were solid, and with the hot start to the season, I expect more of the same. He is still available in many leagues, so stop reading this and go get him. I know Jason Bartlett is on pace for 25 home runs. He will not hit 25 home runs. He will however steal 25 bases, hit .285, and score 85 runs. Even though he will primarily be hitting down in the lineup, it seems as if Joe Maddon will give Bartlett the green light to steal whenever he wants to. The top of the Rays lineup has plenty of pop to drive him in with regularity. Bartlett is still available in most leagues and is a solid SS or MI for any team that is already set in the power department. I know Francisco Liriano will not go 0-35. In three outings, the Twins have scored a total of three runs for Liriano. Of course he did not help his cause by letting up ten in fewer than 18 innings of work. His Ks are down a bit through three starts, but I am not that worried about Liriano. His last turn he shut down the suddenly potent Blue Jay offense and then watched the bullpen give up seven runs before he even sat down in the dugout. If you can find an owner who looks at his 0-3 record and a 5.09 ERA and wants to get rid of Liriano, be sure you are in line to give him an offer. I know Zach Greinke will allow a run this year. Anyone who can march into Texas and shut down that offense has figured this pitching thing out. With the shutout on Saturday, Greinke extended his scoreless innings streak to 34. This kid is the real deal. The former 1st round pick is proving that you can find fantasy value even on a bad team. Greinke is not available in most leagues and you may have to pay a high price to pry him away from another owner, but he will be well worth it in the end. I know Jimmy Rollins will finish the year hitting higher than .133, but will not sniff the 30/30 club again. The stolen bases will be there in the end, but I do not see him with more than 18 homers. Take a look back at his career numbers, his 30 home runs are certainly the outlier, not the norm. In the Philadelphia lineup he will still score a ton of runs and get on base enough to get 35-40 steals, but his slow start may lead to a frustrated owner willing to deal Rollins for less than true value. I know Chien-Ming Wang will finish with an ERA below 34.50, but higher than 4.50. Wang has always been a fantasy oddity; high win totals, decent ratios, but very low strikeout numbers. The Yankees seem to think that there is nothing different from last year before a foot injury ended Wang’s season, but his 4.83 WHIP seems to say otherwise. Unless you are in a Grand Canyon deep league with a big bench, Wang is expendable. I know Emilio Bonaficio had a great few days last week. His blazing start had owners running to their computers to grab this Florida flyer. He followed that up with a 3-24 stretch with 11 Ks. The Marlins have several other lead-off and 3rd base options if Bonaficio continues to struggle, and I expect him to do just that. If you were an owner who grabbed him, time is running out to get any trade value for him. I know Kevin Millwood plays for Texas… for now. Texas is a hitter’s haven in the summertime, and Millwood’s ERA since he moved to the Lone Star State has never dipped below 5. I would have more faith in Millwood if his home/road splits were better over the last few years, but he has done nothing to prove that these three starts are just an anomaly. Millwood is in a contract year and is off to a hot start, so it looks like he may be motivated to cash in this offseason. If Texas falls out of the AL West race, it would not surprise me if Millwood is dealt to a contender. I don’t trust any pitchers in the hot Texas sun, so I would stay away from Millwood unless he leaves town. I know Alexei Ramirez will homer and steal a base this season. He will not take major strides and build on his numbers from last year. Early in the season it looks like pitchers have adjusted to the Cuban Missile. He is a free swinger who is buried at the bottom of the White Sox lineup, which could quite possibly be the slowest lineup in the league. With basepath cloggers in front of him and the bottom of the order behind him I cannot see his RBI or runs totals going much higher than 70. He is nowhere near droppable status but I would consider dealing him if you can get good value for him. I know Edinson Volquez will strike out more hitters than he walks. The first two outings did not look good for Volquez. The third turn he did manage to shut down a weak hitting Houston team, but still sprinkled in five walks. His ERA was 4.60 after the All-Star break last year, and his WHIP was 1.46. Ask any Cubs fan, Dusty Baker doesn’t exactly do wonders for young pitchers. He is not too good with veterans if you ask Aaron Harang. His strikeout numbers will still be high, but I would be shocked to see an ERA lower than 4.00. Try and use his recent good turn to get some value for him in a trade market.

Not Lastings Very Long

In what seems to me like a drastic overreaction, Lastings Milledge was sent down to AAA Syracuse. In my last article I wrote about the logjam in the Nationals outfield, but I never would have guessed that this was the solution. Milledge was not exactly off to a hot start, and will not need a big suitcase to take his .167 / 0 HR / 1 R / 1 RBI / 1 SB stat line with him to Syracuse. It was not only his hitting that punched his ticket to the minors. Nationals GM Mike Rizzo was not pleased with the way his centerfielder was patrolling the outfield. It is hard to believe that Milledge will spend a long time down on the farm. The Nationals are 0-7 and have been out of contention since the strike shortened season of 1994. There is really no reason to keep him down there to work on things that he could work on in the big leagues. He has always been considered to have a ton of physical talent, but has yet to put together a long stretch at the big league level. He has also had some off the field issues recently, including being late to Opening Day and missing a team meeting. A pre-season darling, Milledge was a 10th round fantasy pick with visions of a 20 HR / 30 SB season dancing in owners heads. It is hard to cut bait on such a high pick one week into the season, but unless you are in a deep league and have the roster space, it is even harder to a guy who is not with the big club. I have always gone by the rule that you give a guy the reverse number of weeks as to where you drafted him before you cut him. (In a 20 round draft, my 20th pick gets one week to prove himself; my 19th pick gets two weeks to prove himself and so on). If we go by that formula, Milledge has another 10 weeks or so to right his ship before I would cut bait. If you have the room, stash this guy. Check your league to see if an impatient owner has already cut him, or offer a lowball trade to see if you can get this guy on the cheap. The player who stands to benefit the most is the equally hyped and talented Elijah Dukes. He will be taking over the starting centerfielder job and will be slotted into the 5th spot behind on-base machine Adam Dunn. The new leadoff hitter has not been named. Cristian Guzman would be the logical choice, but he has a bum hamstring and may spend some time on the DL. It looks like the recently activated Anderson Hernandez is the leading candidate. I would not consider Hernandez roster worthy unless you are in a deep NL Only league. Long and short of it: Go get Dukes; Hold Milledge if you have the room; don’t touch Hernandez.

Opening Day Eye Openers

Finally, Finally. Bags of peanuts are falling from the sky, overpriced beer is going down like water, and the smell of hot dogs has never been sweeter. Opening Day is here, and all is right in the baseball world. In the fantasy baseball world however, there are a few things that have left some owners scratching their heads today. I will start with some happenings in the desert today. You will be hard pressed to find an Opening Day in the next 15 years that will have neither Upton in the starting line-up, but that was the case today. B.J. Upton is on the DL still feeling the effects of off season surgery. Justin, one of the most hyped preseason sleepers spent today on the bench in favor of the newly healthy Eric Byrnes. The Arizona juggling act doesn’t end there. Mark Reynolds, another projected starter, spent Monday on the bench in favor of Chad Tracy, who was penciled in as the starting 1st baseman. The biggest surprise in the D-Back line up was the presence of Tony Clark manning 1st base. Clark responded to the starting nod by hitting two homeruns. Tracy, who was shifted across the diamond, hit a game deciding homerun in the 7th. Manager Bob Melvin responded to questions about his line-up with this quote, “The only message we're sending is we're trying to run the best lineup out there on a particular day." He has also said that Reynolds and Upton will be in the starting line-up in game two, but with the solid first day from Tracy and Clark we could be looking at some platoons forming. Clark has not been an everyday player for years and figures to just get a start or two a week, so he should not be seen as a fantasy asset or a major threat to steal time from anyone. I would assume that Reynolds and Tracy will each see 140 plus starts at the corner infield spots. A healthy Eric Byrnes does throw a wrench in the D-Back outfield. With Byrnes, Justin Upton, Connor Jackson, and Chris Young, there are four starting outfielders for only three spots. If Byrnes can keep his hamstring healthy all year he could be a solid waiver wire grab, as he is one year removed from a 21HR/50SB year. From the above quote it looks as if Melvin will be employing an outfield by committee to start the season. All four outfielders are should be owned in 12 team mixed leagues, but you will just have to keep an eye on the line-up on a daily basis for the time being. The Washington Nationals may have a disgruntled outfielder in their dugout, and Elijah Dukes is one person I would not want mad at me. Dukes was another preseason breakout candidate that was not in the starting line-up. He was sat today after being informed that Austin Kearns has won the starting job. Kearns was once a top prospect in the Reds system that has never put his tools together for an extended period of time. Dukes has too much upside to be kept on the bench for long, I see him making his way back into the line-up soon so don’t cut bait on him just yet if you have the bench space. The cancelling of a game in Chicago due to snow when it never actually snowed was not the only confusing thing to go down in the Windy City. Those of you who spent a high pick on Alexei Ramirez probably will not be too happy to find out that he will be hitting 8th in the order to start the year. Most people thought he would be hitting 2nd or maybe even leading off depending on who won the CF job. Taking a look at his stats from last year you will see that he does not have the peripherals of a normal top of the order hitter. 18 walks in 480 at bats last year and an OBP of .317 do not scream lead off guy. It is not like he strikes out a lot, but he is a guy who has never met a pitch he doesn’t like. If you are going to hit high in the order for Ozzie Guillen, or any one for that matter, you need to take some pitches and draw some walks. I can see him making his way up to 6th or maybe even 5th in the line-up on some days, but I do not foresee much of an improvement over last years’ numbers. He is 27 after all. Keep in mind that Opening Day is just one day. It is just the one day where everyone thinks they are a contender. What happens today by no means will set anything in stone for the remainder of the year, but it can provide some insight into what the managers really thought of their teams in Spring Training. No need to panic and drop guys who went 0-4 or rush and grab the next Tuffy Rhodes who had a solid day one, but keep in mind… They all count now fellas, so put your game face on.