Sleeper Ace - Part 1

Every year we have pitchers who are coming back from Tommy John elbow surgery. The question always is, how good will they be? Some come back strong, others fade. Let's take a look at Shaun Marcum, SP, Toronto Blue Jays.

Shaun Marcum had Tommy John surgery in 2008. He did not pitch at all in 2009 as he was recovering. Now recovered, what will we get? To find out (no one knows for sure, but let's speculate a little), we need to look at a few things:

First, how good was he before surgery? In 2007, his first full year in the majors, he put up a 4.13 ERA, 12 wins (6 losses), and 122 Ks in 159 innings. Not bad at all for a young pitcher in his first full season. In 2008, before he got hurt, he had a 3.95 ERA, 123 Ks, in 151 innings. Nice improvement. All in all, he was a good pitcher with all signs pointing to him getting better as he gained experience/maturity.

Second, how old is he? Marcum is 28. His young age is a huge positive as there is a difference between a 35 year old coming back from TJ surgery and a 20 something. At this age, Marcum can recover fully from the surgery and have time to get to where he was and beyond.

Lastly, how does the team view him? It was announced on Monday that Marcum was going to be the opening day starter. They must view him as healthy and pitching well. I guess they like that he has only given up one hit in 5 innings so far this spring. To be fair, they have a fairly inexperienced staff, so Marcum, with his experience before his injury, has a leg up. Still it's a good sign.

So when we put this all together, what do we get? We get a nice pitcher that won't be targeted very much on draft day. Yes a sleeper ace. When a guy disappears for a year (due to injury or whatever) he drops off of a lot people's radar. That is going to be the case with Marcum. But, now that he's healthy, he should not be overlooked. He has shown that when he is healthy, he can pitch very well in the majors. I think a 4.00 ERA. 130 Ks, and double digit wins is well within reason for him this year. Remember, it's picks like this, late in the draft, that really make or break a fantasy team.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)