Injury Bargains

Fantasy baseball tends to be a ‘what have you done for me lately’ game. If a player puts together a few good games in a row he will be added by thousands of leagues across the country, but if he goes hitless in two games he will be tossed back into the free agent pool. Same goes for a fringe pitcher who throws seven shutout innings followed by a rough four inning outing.

Ask any owner who drafted Chris Carpenter in the 17^th round last year, taking a late round flier on a player coming off injury can pay off big. Of course, if you nabbed Francisco Liriano in the 7^th round last year, you know that it is no sure thing for a pitcher to regain his form post surgery.

These three pitchers started a combined eight games in 2009, but are all expected to be healthy to begin 2010. If they can stay healthy they could provide a great bargain in the later rounds.

Brandon Webb (Arizona Diamondbacks) – A former Cy Young award winner, Webb started only one game last year before having minor shoulder surgery last August. Webb was a top ten pitcher from 2006-08, compiling 56 wins and 555 Ks during that span. He threw off a mound last week for the first time since surgery and declared himself pain free. The Diamondbacks have every reason to be cautious with Webb as he returns from injury, but he insists he will be ready to go by opening day. Right now his ADP is 127 (28^th pitcher). If he proves healthy after a few Spring Training outings I would find it hard to believe that there will be 27 pitchers better by the end of the season.

Ben Sheets (Oakland A's) – Sheets did not don a uniform for all of 2009 after having surgery on his throwing elbow. The Oakland A’s gave him a very healthy contract for a guy who has had trouble staying healthy over the past few years. Sheets is a career .500 pitcher spending his entire career on a Brewers team that has usually been below that mark. His WHIP, ERA, and K/9 rate are solid when he is healthy, but health is not a sure bet for a power pitcher coming off major surgery. He is being drafted as the 51^st pitcher overall, meaning he is a 5^th starter on most fantasy teams, with the upside of being a solid number 3 starter.

Tim Hudson (Atlanta Braves) – The Braves were so confident in Hudson’s return from Tommy John surgery that they gave him a three-year extension this offseason. Although pitchers return in as little as nine months after Tommy John surgery, they tend to need at least 18 months before a full recovery. Hanson went under the knife in August of 2008, putting him at 20 months to start this season. 2009 saw him start only seven games down the stretch for the Braves, finishing with a 2-1 record and never allowing more than 4 ER in any start. Hudson has never piled up the strikeouts, but should be a good source of ratios and get 11-14 wins in 2010. Not bad for a guy who is being drafted 203^rd overall in recent drafts.

While pitchers tend to be much more risky when it comes to returning from injury, hitters can just as easily be draft day bargains. Next week I will review three hitters coming back from injuries that could produce some solid return on investment.

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Radar Watch: Tim Hudson

Before getting injured, Tim Hudson was a stud pitcher. He had Tommy John surgery on July 22, 2008 and has been recovering well. Hudson is pitching in the minors and hasn't given up a run in his two games (6 innings total) so far. He could be a very nice addition for your stretch run! There is a little uncertainty to be aware of though. He still has to build stamina, which means he will not be called up for at least a few weeks (no timeline has been set by the Braves but it is getting close to a time when they will have to decide). Will he be a starter this year or go to the bullpen? Probably be a starter, but again, nothing has been set. A pitcher of Hudson's caliber that you can grab off of the free agent pile could be a nice late season present. -Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Don't "Dis" the Disabled List

Obviously the last thing you want is for one your big name fantasy player to pull a hammy and end up sitting in the hot tub for the next month and a half while your fantasy team spirals down towards the bottom of your league’s standings. But if he does you can simply put him on your disabled list and pick up another player to fill his stead. That is the main purpose of having a DL, but if you’re smart you’ll make sure your DL is always full.

Having players on your DL does not count towards your max roster size, so you have the luxury of having an extra player or two on your team with no extra cost. So if you have open spots on your disabled list you should look at some of the available free agents in your league who are hurt. You should try to target hitters at positions where you weakest and as for pitching, well, fantasy is much like real baseball in the fact that you can never have too much pitching. Some notable players that are currently on the DL that are due back before or around the All Star break are: Xavier Nady (24% owned in Yahoo leagues), John Smoltz (49% owned), Justin Duchscherer (26% owned), Tim Hudson (6% owned), and Ryan Doumit (55% owned). These players have no risk and potentially high reward as they can possibly put your team over the top as you make your fantasy playoff push -Scout Berardi