Draft Strategy: Heavy (on) hitters

So by now everyone who refers to themselves as a fantasy expert has already told you that hitting is more valuable than pitching, draft the best player available without worrying about position need, blah blah. But if you're like me, you've always felt some reservations about going too many rounds in a draft without getting some kind of balance. I went into our writers' draft last night without any real type of strategy, but I noticed 11 rounds in that I had one pitcher (B.J. Ryan). This frazzled me. One pitcher--and a mid-range closer at that--11 rounds into a 13-team draft? How could I possibly hope to compete in the pitching categories without a staff ace? I was going to really have to scrape the bottom of the barrel, right? And that's where my nugget for today comes from, because that's wrong. I picked up Ryan Dempster in round 11 (Adam Wainwright almost slipped to me), Kevin Slowey in round 14 and Gavin Floyd in round 16. These aren't projects or high-risk-high-reward guys. These are legit starters that can be found in the middle rounds, after your batters are situated. They're also about as solid as a starter is going to get. Beyond that, I was able to pick up three more guys that are at least on some semblance of solid ground for their respective closer jobs (Chad Qualls, Joel Hanrahan, Matt Lindstrom) in rounds 13, 15 and 17, respectively. There is a ton of pitching value there for the taking in the later rounds. With hitting this season, late-round picks are going to have huge question marks. With pitching, late-round guys are still going to be just as safe as anyone else. So feel free to go heavy on hitting. Relentlessly heavy on hitting. A lot of people will tell you to devalue pitching but to still try and pick up a staff ace and a top closer, or a couple great pitchers in the first 8-10 rounds, but don't listen to them. Go all-out. Fill your lineup with hitters. Because it's not like you'll have to search to find diamonds in the rough--the pitchers with talent, pedigrees, and opportunity are still going to be there when the rounds hit double-digits. So if you're like me and you notice 11 rounds in that you're sitting on a bunch of sluggers and B.J. Ryan, don't fret. You've got this draft right where you want it.

Trends from the PFB Writer's Draft

This time of year, it seems like there’s a Home Show every weekend. If you’re never been, Home Shows are great. Hundreds of builders, design experts, manufacturers, and other businesses all descend on one place with the aim of sharing what they know. You’re able to learn about new building techniques, check out the latest design trends, and get fresh ideas for your own projects without doing weeks of research on your own. The best part is that you don’t actually have to spend any money. Instead, you simply walk around the show, collect information, and file it away. Once you've started your project, you'll be able to make decisions about materials, or the cost of a product without any trouble. So what do Home Shows have to do with Fantasy Baseball? Last Saturday profantasybaseball.com held its annual writer’s draft. Just like with a Home Show, fantasy baseball writers from across the United States gathered (electronically) to draft teams for the writer’s league. Of course, every league is different, but you can use expert drafts like this one to check current trends, evaluate different strategies, and gauge player values. So take a look at the trends from this draft (and others), and then file the information away. While your league mates worry about when to take their first Starting Pitcher, you'll be able to sit back, relax, and draft with confidence. (For reference, this is a 10 team, 5x5 rotisserie league. Starting Rosters consist of: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, UT, UT, UT, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, RP, P, P, P with 8 bench spots) Hitters went early. Through the first 5 rounds, 43 of the 50 picks were used to draft hitters. Just 6 of 50 picks were pitchers, and just 1 of the first 50 picks was used on a reliever. By the end of the 10th round, pitchers were starting to come off the board, but still, 75 of the first 100 picks were used on hitters. Top Outfielders were in demand. 20 of the first 50 picks were spent on Outfielders. This league is skewed towards offense, but the trend through the first 5 rounds was take one if not two top Outfielders early. There was still value at every other offensive position through the middle rounds, but by that time, the OF crop had been thinned. Guys like Brad Hawpe (13th Round), Justin Upton (17th round) and Xavier Nady (17th round) were good late values, but the clear trend was to take Outfielders early. There is a drop off from the top SS and top 3B. 4 3B went in the top 50 (Wright, A-Rod, Longoria, Aramis Ramirez). For those that miss out on the top 4 at 3B, rounds 6-9 offer solid players like Chris Davis, Chipper Jones, Ryan Zimmerman, Aubrey Huff, and Garret Atkins, but mid to late round values were tougher to find. Jorge Cantu (14th round) and Adrian Beltre (16th round) were great values. Likewise, three SS went in the first 11 picks (Hanley Ramirez 2nd, Reyes 7th, and Rollins 11th) but no SS were taken again until the 6th round. For those that miss out on one of the top short stops, round 6 or 7 was when guys like Alexi Ramirez, Stephen Drew or Rafael Furcal came off the board. Those that waited even longer found guys like J.J. Hardy (Rd. 10) or Jhonny Peralta (Rd. 12). Late round values were tougher to find, though Miguel Tejada (14th round) and Mike Aviles (15th round) were nice values at those spots. There is good depth at 1B, but don’t wait too long-An elite 1B will still costs a 1st or 2nd round pick, but solid options were available from the 4th round all the way until the 12th round. Joey Votto (9th round), Carlos Pena (10th round) or Connor Jackson (12th) were some of the best examples of mid round value. You can wait on SP-The top pitchers were still taken early, but solid pitching is available in the mid to late rounds. In fact, in this particular draft you could have waited until round 10 before taking your first starter and still built a solid staff: Chad Billingsley, John Lester, Josh Beckett, and Felix Hernandez all went in the10th, Ervin Santana, Yovani Gallardo, and Cliff Lee in the 11th, Ricky Nolasco and Scott Kazmir the 12th, Carlos Zambrano, Edison Volquez, and Matt Cain in the 13th, Adam Wainwright and Brett Myers in the 14th Scott Baker (16th),Kevin Slowey (18th), and Ted Lilly (19th) all went late as well. You can wait on RP too, but don’t wait too long- Relievers started to come off the board in round 5, but surprisingly there was no run on Closers. Instead 1 reliever was drafted in every round from round 5 through round 17 (2 relievers went in round 6). Top closers started to come off the board by round 5. By round 15, most of the remaining closers were inexperienced (Frank Francisco) or had question marks (Mike Gonzalez’s health). So... how did my team turn out? Here are my first 20 picks: Pick Player Position 7 José Reyes SS 14 Carlos Lee OF 27 Prince Fielder 1B 34 Aramis Ramírez 3B 47 Alexei Ramírez 2B 54 Chris Davis 1B,3B 67 Magglio Ordóñez OF 74 Jermaine Dye OF 87 Roy Oswalt SP 94 Chone Figgins 2B,3B 107 Yovani Gallardo SP 114 Scott Kazmir SP 127 David Price SP 134 Brett Myers SP 147 Johnny Damon OF 154 Scott Baker SP 167 Mike González RP 174 Huston Street RP 187 Ted Lilly SP 194 Bengie Molina C Best Picks: Reyes at #7, Oswalt at #87 Worst Picks: Figgins at #94 (passed on Brian Fuentes, Ervin Santana) This team’s offense should be very solid, with a good combination of speed and power, plus each of my hitters should sport a solid batting average. Pitching could be an issue: Kazmir and Gallardo haven’t been durable, Price is unproven, and Myers was inconsistent last year. If everyone can stay healthy, I’ll be very competitive in K’s, WHIP and ERA. Relief pitching is my team's weakness. I’ll need to make a trade (or two) or strike gold on the waiver wire.