From Feel Good Story of the Year..........

To The Nightmare on Yawkey Way!

Don't get me wrong Jon Lester's '08 stat line is impressive.

Starts    Innings     Wins     Losses    K's      BB     ERA    Whip

  33         210.3         16           6              152     66      3.21    1.27

He also had 20 quality starts and both of his complete games were shutouts.

So what's not to love?  

Well let's step into my WayBack Machine and travel to the year 2007 (try sounding like Conan O'brien when you read that).  Now that we're here you will notice that his total innings at the end of the '07 season are 165.4 including his major, minor and playoff appearances.  

Now looking back, I mean forward to his '08 combined innings, which total 236.5, even non sabermetric statisticians can see the huge disparity between the two seasons.

30 innings has become the defacto standard for safely upping a young starting pitchers inning from one year to the next.  Lester has over doubled this number with a mammoth increase of 71.1 innings and he doesn't even pitch for Dusty Baker.

Recent (in)famous victims that have fallen prey to larger than 30 inning jumps include Francisco Liriano, Mark Prior and Yovani Gallardo among others.   

Is Lester going to blow out his arm? I hope not, but we will have to wait and see.

Should you draft him?  Definitely, if you trust his arm.  

His ADP has him being taken between the 8th and 9th round and his numbers are worthy of that drafting him there.

And someone will draft him, just not me.  I'll be scooping up later round bargains like Gil Meche and  Javier Vazquez.

If you are in a Yahoo league draft.......

Pablo Sandoval catcher for the the SF Giants. Wait you say, I thought their catcher was Bengie Molina who had a great season last year. Your right the eldest Molina is the SF catcher and is worth drafting late as well, but in Yahoo leagues you only need 10 games at a position in 08 to be eligible there in 09. While I prefer a 20 game threshold for eligibility, this falls under the category of knowing your league's rules and taking advantage of them. With an ADP of 188 he could be your steal of the draft if you target him just earlier than this, say your pick that is closest to the 170th draft spot. While Sandoval likely won't rake at last years late season pace because of his low walk rate, he is a candidate for .280-15-75-70 or better which is a great line for a late round round catcher. Actually make that any catcher.

Why you shouldn't draft a catcher early

Here is a tale of two players, A and B Player A's 08 stats: AB R HR RBI BB KO SB BA 538 91 29 115 62 108 3 .312 Player B's 08 stats: AB R HR RBI BB KO SB BA 509 68 23 87 57 64 5 .301 While both put up solid numbers last year, who would you draft first? Obviously looking at the numbers you would say player A with his superior numbers in every category (I know B had 2 more SB but that is negligible when you look at their total lines). And you would be right because player A, Kevin Youkilis is drafted first but player B, Brian McCann is being picked only 2 spots later on average. I know you say but he's a catcher, position scarcity and such, but I say forget that. If you draft Youkilis and Bengie Molina (157th overall) your roto stat line is: AB R HR RBI SB BA 1068 137 45 210 3 .302 If you draft McCann and Pat Burrell (149th overall) your roto stat line is: AB R HR RBI SB BA 1045 142 56 173 5 .275 The differences are not earth shattering but when you consider how close first and third can be in a roto category then the disparity is important. So yes, McCann and Burrell edge Molina and Youk in runs and kill them with nearly 25% more home runs, but the huge difference in BA and RBI more than make up for it. For those who say Bengie won't drive in 95 this year I say your probably right, but even if he finishes with 15 less ribbies his duo with Youk is more valuable. Happy drafting Scout PDX

Shocker Picks From Roto Draft

All in all, I would say that this was a very competitive draft, the kind where someone is always taking "your" guy right before you're going to. Still many rounds had a pick that left my mouth agape. Now in using the term "shocker", I am not necessarily saying it's a bad pick, rather just something to ponder over an ice cold IPA. It all started in round 1 with David Wright going first overall to the Cubs Scout (yes it makes me chuckle too). It's not that he is unworthy, especially considering the dearth of legit 3rd basemen, but you would be hard pressed to convince me he is more valuable than Hanley Ramirez or A-Rod in a standard 5x5 roto league. Tim Linecum being the first pitcher drafted is not news (especially considering Santana's troubling arm troubles) but being taken at 16 overall by Scout Berardi shocked me. Also, maybe it was destiny that the top three 2nd baseman went off the board in round 2, but Dustin Pedroia at 17 overall by the Bay State Scout is a stretch considering his ADP is in the mid to late twenties. Round 3's surprise must have been a pleasant one for aforementioned Bay State Scout. He was able to procure the new A's leftfielder with the 24th overall pick. So maybe David Ortiz is not going the way of Mo Vaughn, but it's true the big guys don't age well and he is 33. So I just don't see the need to draft someone at the end of the 4th, ten spots ahead of their ADP, when they have health concerns and can only DH for your roto squad. 45.02 and 45.36. What do they represent? Well they are Brian McCann's and Russell Martin's respective ADP and you can't get much closer than that. So Martin goes at 40 overall to the Cubs Scout , not much of a reach if you want his steals but the superior (I think) McCann falls to the 52nd draft spot one spot after Mauer. Yes, I said after! For two players destined to go back to back I was stunned how much later he was drafted. On a side not don't draft catches early it's not worth it grab a Napoli, Clement, Molina (Bengie of course) or Iannetta late and get some real production from a real position from your early round picks. Chris Davis I like him, you like him Scout C.P. Staley loves him! How do I know? He drafted Davis number 54 overall a full twenty spots ahead of his ADP. You say he projects to 34 homeruns in 600 at bats I say he projects 186 K's. A solid stat for a pitcher but an ominous one for a young hitter. I am going against my beloved ADP on this shocker because Adam Dunn was drafted exactly where he should have been. So what's my problem? Well, Mr. Dunn is like a closer, a one category stud, his RBI and Run totals are adequate but his average blows like Big League Chew and he doesn't even steal bases any more. I could go on and on, but I think my point is clear: There is no one way to draft, but use ADP to your advantage. Scout PDX