Fantasy Baseball News Blog

This blog has moved

2010-04-25T22:34:00.001-07:00

This blog is now located at http://pfs-news.blogspot.com/. You will be automatically redirected in 30 seconds, or you may click here. For feed subscribers, please update your feed subscriptions to http://pfs-news.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default.

Really? Andruw Jones? Really?

2010-04-24T12:41:00.000-07:00

This is an article I didn't think I would write, certainly didn't want to write it, but I can't ignore what Andruw Jones is doing in Chicago.

Remember Jones on the Braves? Great fielder, great hitter, exciting, just a great player. Then the Dodgers got him for a bunch of money and he proceeded to go into the toilet. Completely abysmal. As a Dodger fan, I went from, 'Yes! We got Andruw Jones!' to 'What did we do? Just spent a load of money and got nothing.' Complete disappointment. Whatever happened to him from the Braves to the Dodgers seemed to have ended his career.

Not so fast my friend. The 33 year old outfielder is having a bit of a turnaround. So far this year, he is hitting .293, 6 HRs, 9 RBIs, and 3 SBs. I'm not sure he did that his entire time in L.A. If Jones is regaining some of his old form, he is a must watch and a potential waiver wire pickup that can pay off big time. He is owned in about 5% of leagues, so he is probably available for you. Shallow leagues need to watch and see if he keeps up these numbers (if so, then he becomes a must own in almost all formats), deep leagues should seriously consider picking him up and hope he is the old Andrew Jones again.

Why oh why could he have not done this for the Dodgers?

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Rangers Smoak To Get Call

2010-04-23T00:20:00.000-07:00

The Texas Rangers will demote 1B Chris Davis to Triple-A Oklahoma City and recall prospect Justin Smoak. Smoak is expected to start at first base.

This is a must pick up if he is available. There is no guarantee that he will become a star day one, but he is the type of prospect he can strike gold and end up being a Fantasy All-Star in 2010.

The switch-hitter batted .300 with 2 home runs with 50 at bats thus far in 2010.

Sin City Scout

Prospect Watch: Xavier Paul

2010-04-22T20:01:00.000-07:00

Xavier Paul - OF - Los Angeles Dodgers

Paul continues to play well in Triple-A Albuquerque (.386 with 3 home runs and stole 3 bases), but plays the one position the Dodgers simply do not need, unless Manny Ramirez goes down to an injury and hits the DL (which is likely at some point). It does help that Juan Pierre has moved on, though the Dodgers replaced him with Garret Anderson, Paul could compete if he gets a chance.

Paul is 25-years-old and has played a full season of Triple-A baseball, so he is ready for the big leagues. He has a nice combination of pop and speed that will please fantasy managers if and when he gets his chance. He hit 28 doubles, 5 triples, 9 home runs and stole 17 bases with 443 at bats in 2008 and spent a lot of the 2009 season on the Dodger bench and the DL. Thus far in 2010 he has hit 3 home runs and stole 3 bases while batting .386 with 39 at bats.

In the end we are looking at a .290, 10-15 home-run-hitting, 20-30 stolen base fantasy player if he gets the call.

Sin City Scout

Eye On: Mitch Talbot

2010-04-22T12:51:00.000-07:00

A young pitcher with a few good starts under his belt. That describes the 26 year old Mitch Talbot, starting pitcher for the Cleveland Indians.

His first start for the Indians was against the Detroit Tigers and he wasn't great - 5 innings, 4 earned runs, 6 hits, 5 walks, 1 K. Since then, he has settled down nicely. His second start was against the White Sox - 9 innings, 1 earned run, 0 walks, and 2 Ks (and his first win). This was a very solid outing. Today (4/22) he pitched another nice game against the Twins - 6 innings, 0 earned runs, 3 walks, 3 Ks. The strike outs are not encouraging (7 total in 3 games) but he seems to be able to get guys out regardless. Not to be overlooked in this is that his first three starts have come against good teams. He is showing that he can pitch at this level.

It's early to run out and grab this guy in all formats, but he is worth keeping an eye on. In deep leagues, definitely consider him. The rest of you, watch and see how he progresses. If he can get a few more strike outs, that would give a nice increase to his value, but even as is, if he stays this solid, he is looking like he can help your team.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Prospect Watch: Brett Wallace

2010-04-21T23:06:00.000-07:00

Brett Wallace - 1B/3B - Toronto

Wallace hit his 5th home run of the season in AAA Las Vegas and now leads the Pacific Coast League. He is batting .283 with his first 44 at bats of the young season.

Wallace has shown decent power in the past, but not to this extent, so we will have to see if he keeps it up. In 2009 AAA he hit 15 home runs and batted .282 with 425 at bats.

He was selected by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 1st-round (No. 13 overall) and was a key player along with Clayton Mortensen and Shane Peterson, to the Oakland A's for Matt Holliday. He was subsequently traded to the Blue Jays for top prospect Michael Taylor.

Edwin Encarnacion did go to the DL with a sore shoulder, but Aaron Hill was activated from the DL and thus no call-up. Nevertheless, if Lyle Overbay continues to struggle (.119, 0 HR's) Wallace could see a call up as early as May.

Sin City Scout

Kotchman's Bat Comes Alive

2010-04-20T17:50:00.000-07:00

Seattle first basemen, Casey Kotchman, has long been touted as a fantasy-starter-hopeful, but has failed season after season.

He has never had over 500 at bats in his career and has averaged just over 200 at bats a season, so injuries and lack of playing time definitely have to be factored in to his lack of success.

The good news is Kotchman is just 27-years-old and is finally getting a chance to be a full-time starter in Seattle and Seattle finally has a solid offense.

Don't expect a huge year by any means from Kotchman, but whether you pick him as a Rent-a-Vet, or as an AL-only starter, or as your backup first basemen, he can hold down the fort at first base by batting around .280 with 20 home runs if he can play a full season.

Sin City Scout

Rent-a-Vet: Juan Uribe

2010-04-20T17:22:00.000-07:00

Veteran infielder, Juan Uribe is off to one of his best starts of his careerbatting .348 with 2 home runs, 11 RBI's, 9 runs and 1 stolen base.

He is currently slotted as the Giants starting second basemen, but could see time at shortstop and third base as the season goes.

Last year Uribe had solid season for the Giants batting .289 with 16 home runs, so it is possible he can stick on your team as a backup or a low-end starter.

Sin City Scout

The Amazin' Pelfrey

2010-04-19T21:55:00.000-07:00

Last year I was excited about the New York Met pitching. I figured that when they added K-Rod, that the already talented (albeit raw) starters would put up some very nice numbers. Well, it didn't happen (except for Santana of course).

For this year, my expectations of Met pitching, were next to nothing. Outside of Santana, I didn't think any of the other starters were worth much of a look except maybe in deep, deep leagues, or in leagues where you get points for high ERAs and losses.

With all that said, there is a starter on the Mets who is looking good. In fact, he is looking down right great! It's Mike Pelfrey.

Now Pelfrey had the 'young up-and-comer' label along with many of his peers (Maine, Niese, etc.), but didn't do much last year. This year though, it is a very different story. He has started 2 games, pitched a total of 13 innings, given up only 2 runs, 4 walks, and 10 strike outs! Me likes. Oh yea, he also talked the manager in letting him pitch in the 20 inning game and he got the save.

Two games hardly makes him a great pitcher, but it is a good sign. Evidently he started throwing a split finger fastball and this new pitch is what has improved his outings. Time will tell for sure, but he is now worth a look in moderately deep formats. He should be available as he is owned in just over 5% of leagues.

After the last few years, the Mets can use some good news. Mike Pelfrey's performance so far is the best news they have had in a long awhile.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Jose Guillen: Fantasy Stud!

2010-04-15T09:49:00.000-07:00

There are different reasons why a player is underrated. One of the main reasons is injury. A guy is real good, but doesn't play consistently enough to really show you his skills. Jose Guillen, OF, KC Royals, falls in this category. I have had him on my fantasy teams past and had mixed feelings. When he was healthy and played, he would put up solid numbers (from a guy I picked late in the draft or off of waivers), but when hurt (fairly often), he would struggle at the plate or miss time altogether. The up and down was frustrating.

Well, Jose Guillen is up now. He is healthy and swinging a mighty bat. Through his first 9 games, he is hitting .361, 5 HRs, and 9 RBIs. In my H2H points league, he is in the top 5 for point getters for all hitters! Yes, a fantasy stud! And of course, he is on the waiver wire.

Let's be real for a moment. Guillen will not be a top 5 point person in my H2H league at the end of the year. He won't be top 5 even among just outfielders. What will he be? He will likely be a .275 hitter with 25-30 HRs (based on his history). Well, that's not bad, but that's not great either. Correct. What we are probably looking at here is a rental type player, or a spot starter. Guillen has always been kinda streaky. Right now he is on a great streak and it's worth playing him until the streak fades. The only question at that point is whether or not to keep him for his next streak or drop him. Honestly, if you drop him, he will probably be available on waivers for his next hitting streak.

One last thing. The unknown. Sometimes a guy comes out of nowhere to put up a great year. A good start doesn't mean that will happen, but it is a start. Jose Guillen has talent, even at 33 years old. Maybe he has a last hurrah in store before his declining baseball years.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Rent-A-Vet: Alex Gonzalez

2010-04-13T06:48:00.000-07:00

Seems early to be talking about 'renting' a player, but what Alex Gonzalez is doing so far cannot be ignored.

The 33 year old Toronto shortstop has 4 HRs already (1 behind the league lead). Combined with 4 doubles, a stolen base, and a .333 AVG makes him a nice guy to rent.

This 'rental' could end up being more. Gonzalez has shown some flashes throughout his career of having a good bat, but his real issues have always been with his health. As long as he is healthy he could be a nice option at SS. However, he hasn't been able to stay healthy for years. Time will tell.

What can we expect? Assuming a healthy year, we could be looking at a .280 AVG, 20+ HRs (but really, way to early for this). Regardless of where he will end up at the end of the year, he's healthy now and hitting good (and available in over 80% of leagues). Consider him an early rental with a little upside.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Rent-A-Vet: Julio Lugo

2010-04-12T23:57:00.000-07:00

"So anyways, I was standing there waiting to use the pay phone and this guy who was on the phone, turns around and tips his hat like this."

"And who do you think that guy was?"

Julio Lugo and I was like, "JULIO."

Julio Lugo is relevant once again, how you say. Well in a late spring move the Orioles acquired the former Red Sox and now Cardinals cast off for a bucket of balls. The trade made some sense with Brian Roberts back issues and only Ty Wiggington on the roster to fill in at second if needed, the O's needed and upgrade and Lugo was just that.

Well look now Roberts has been formally placed on the D.L. and Julio Lugo is your starting second baseman in Baltimore. For how long, who knows Roberts did just have an epidural for his back so this could be an ongoing issue.

Now back to Lugo, believe it or not he had a very solid year in 2009 putting up a .284 avg 40 runs 3 HR 21 RBI and 9 SB. He wont help in the power numbers and it looks like the speed numbers are on a drastic decline, but he should be able to score some runs and hit for a decent avg. You could find a lot worse if you are a Brian Roberts owner.

Pick up Lugo for the short term he could surprise you.

The Bay State Scout
(Bay_state_scout@comcast.net)

Number 5 is Alive!

2010-04-12T04:21:00.000-07:00

For all of you in deeper leagues, there are a couple of number 5 starters to look at.

Charlie Haeger, L.A. Dodgers: When a pitcher fans 12 batters, you have to give at least a little attention. Well, Haeger struck out 12 Marlins in 6 innings with his knuckleball! He also gave up 3 runs and 4 walks (all in all, a quality start). He is not known to strike out batters at the pace he showed on Sunday, so temper some of those expectations. He plays in a nice pitchers park, a team that has an above average (if not good) offense, in a division that is not terribly strong. All of this gives Haeger the potential for double digit wins. Owned in less then 1% of leagues, he should be available.

Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds: Leake has no minor league experience. None. He went straight from college to spring training and won a spot (over Chapman no less). Not many have done this, but Leake has been given a shot. In his first start he only gave up 1 run and struck out 5 in 6.2 innings. Sounds good. However, he also walked 7 batters. Yep, 7. Amazing that he only gave up 1 run! Still, you have to imagine the guy was battling some nerves. All in all, we're not sure yet what we will get with Leake, but again, a number five starter available in about 98% of leagues.

BONUS: Jaime Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals: I've mentioned him before. He's good. In his first start he went 6 innings, 5 Ks, 1 earned run, 3 BB, and got the win. He's still available in 99% of leagues. If your league has any depth at all, grab him now.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Casey At Bat

2010-04-08T12:53:00.000-07:00

Alright, go ahead and 'booo' me over the title. It's pretty bad, but just too easy.

Casey McGehee is the third baseman for the Milwaukee Brewers. The 27 year old had a nice breakout season last year. He batted a .301 AVG, 16 HR, 66 RBI, and 58 Runs (in 116 games). Solid. What makes him more then just another third baseman is that he is second base eligible in most leagues. I wrote about Gordan Beckham and how his second base eligibility (soon) raises his value, same with McGehee.

Although he had a bad spring, he's performing now that it counts. The Brewers have a decent hitting team (Braun, Fielder), so this give McGehee that much more value. If we start with last years stats, we would walk away with a nice second baseman. The fact that he can improve those numbers is exciting. If he continues to hit (5/11, 1 HR, 3 RBIs so far), he'll make a great sleeper. I like him for a .300 AVG, 25 HR, 80 RBIs, and 70 Runs. Not bad at all for a potential waiver wire pickup! Also, being born in my hometown of Santa Cruz, CA, just makes him all the more appealing.

Second base is starting to look a little deeper then I originally thought heading into the year. McGehee is one of the reasons for that. He is available in more then 50% of leagues, but that number is dwindling.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Grab You Some S-Rod

2010-04-06T16:18:00.000-07:00

Reid Brignac won the 'rookie of spring training' award for the Rays. Good for him. However, his primary competition is starting over him. Sean Rodriguez is the starting second baseman on the opening day roster. This is a little sooner then most thought (myself included).

Don't the Rays already have a second baseman? Yes. In fact, they have at least 3 guys who can play the position, and play it well. Ben Zobrist (who had a break out year last year) can and will play some 2B, but will also see a lot of RF to allow others to step up. Reid Brignac can play 2B and likely will get some playing time (at the very least as an infield utility guy). Last, we have the above mentioned starting 2B, Sean Rodriguez.

Why pick him up? First, the Rays have shown a great ability to groom young players. Second, as good as Brignac's spring was, Rodriguez's was better. .420 AVG, 15 RBIs, 6 HRs. Third, he already has the 'S-Rod' nickname catching on.

Good development, good hitter, good defender, good team, good pickup for you! Rodriguez has a chance to be one of the better sleepers of the year. Should be available in about 90% of leagues, but probably not for too long.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Spring Training Updates: Pitchers

2010-04-03T20:24:00.000-07:00

Gio Gonzalez - A's
Stats: 1-2 - 2.96 ERA - 25 K's - 24.1 IP.
Outlook: The big prospect didn't do much in 2009, but he did post 109 K's with 98.2 IP. He has the makings of a very good fantasy starting pitcher, but is still young and still pitches for the A's.

Francisco Liriano - Twins
Stats: 2-0 - 2.70 - 30 K's - 20 IP.
Outlook: He has been brilliant as a starter and talk still swirls about him closing. Either Liriano may be back to his stud-self and you may want to try and swing a trade for him before the season starts.

Chris Young - Padres
Stats: 2-2 - 3.32 - 21.2 K's - 22 IP.
Outlook: He is a forgotten pitcher by many, but could be a nice veteran fantasy starter. Plays in a pitchers park, gets K's and he looks healthy.

Dana Eveland - Blue Jays
Stats: 0-1 - 1.80 ERA - 21 K's - 25 IP.
Outlook: He struggled in 2009 after a solid rookie 2008 debut. He was one of the players acquired in the Dan Haren trade, so he has talent. He is one to keep an eye on in deep leagues or AL-only for now.

Fausto Carmona - Indians
Stats: 3-0 - 1.38 - 12 K's - 26 IP.
Outlook: He has been a bum since winning 19 in 2007, but he looked sharp in Spring Training and is worth a shot if you need to fill in your last SP slot. FYI: He is not much of a K-pitcher.

Ian Kennedy - Diamondbacks
Stats: 3-1 - 2.88 ERA - 17 K's - 25 IP.
Outlook: The one-time Yankee prospect is looking good for the D'backs and will be in the rotation.

Wade LeBlanc - Padres
Stats: 4-0 - 1.96 ERA - 17 K's - 23 IP.
Outlook: He played well after his call-up in 2009 and has kept it up in Spring Training. Padre pitchers are worth picking up and taken a shot at to improve you ERA and WHIP if he can get into the rotation at some point in 2010.

Mat Latos - Padres
Stats: 3-0 - 1.59 ERA - 14 K's - 17 IP.
Outlook: Unlike LeBlanc, he is in the Padre starting rotation. He played solid as a rookie in 2009 and maintains a solid K/9-ratio and that is enough to make as a low-end fantasy starter.

Spring Training Updates: Hitters

2010-04-03T14:23:00.000-07:00

Mike Aviles - SS - Royals
Stats: .460 - 0 HR's - 5 triples - 50 at bats.
Outlook: He looks like the same Aviles that had fantasy owners excited in 2009. He has yet to show his pop, but he is worth a last roster spot.

Julio Borbon - OF - Rangers
Stats: .314 - 1 HR - 3 SB's - 86 at bats.
Outlook: He looks to start centerfield and leadoff for the Rangers.

Chris Davis - 1B/3B - Rangers
Stats: .364 - 2 HR's - 22 K's - 77 at bats.
Outlook: He continues to improve his hitting and cutting down his K's. This looks like the breakout year for Davis.

John Bowker - 1B - Giants
Stats: .310 - 5 HR's - 75 at bats.
Outlook: He is currently a backup in LF and at 1B. He could take over for often-injured Aubrey Huff. He is ready for the Bigs either way.

Carlos Gomez - OF - Brewers
Stats: .300 - 0 HR's - 11 SB's - 70 at bats.
Outlook: He has been just about everything the Brewers wanted, though some power is expected. The one-time big prospect should be back on the radar, especially if you need SB's.

Chris Johnson - 3B - Astros
Stats: .317- 7 HR's - 60 at bats.
Outlook: He looks like he will make the roster, unless the Astros decide to send him down to get at bats, but with Pedro Feliz at 3B and Geoff Blum at 1B, Johnson has a shot to start by seasons-end.

Sean Rodriguez - 2B/OF - Rays
Stats: .460 - 6 HR's - 63 at bats.
Outlook: He will make the roster, but will not likely start...yet. He showed tremendous power in the minors as well as in Spring Training.

Tyler Colvin - OF - Cubs
Stats: .468 - 2 HR's - 2 SB's - 77 at bats.
Outlook: The former #1 pick had a huge spring and won a spot on the roster. He will have to wait for injury or major slump to start, but keep on eye on him.

Kyle Banks - OF - Padres
Stats: .407- 3 HR's - 59 at bats.
Outlook: The big prospect had a great spring and will start in LF and possibly bat clean up.

Secret Second

2010-04-02T09:47:00.000-07:00

Second Base has been a weak position for a few years now. Yes, there are some good players, but the difference from tier 1 to tier 2 seems pretty big. Generally you draft a second baseman in the first couple of rounds or the last couple of rounds. But wait, there is a guy who can perform like a high end pick that can be had in middle rounds.

His name is Gordan Beckham, second base, Chicago White Sox. Wait, in my league he is listed as a third baseman, not second. Correct. At this moment, he is only eligible at 3B, but his position for the White Sox this year will be 2B. So within a week or two, he will be 2B eligible. This little fact is why you can get him on the cheap. This is why he is a 'Secret Second'.

You see, as a third baseman, he is average. He would not be a top pick, but would make someones fantasy team in most formats. But average 3B numbers translate to pretty good 2B numbers.

Wait, there's more! He's only 23 and has upside. In 2009, he played in 103 games as a rookie. He put up a .270 AVG, 14 HR, 63 RBIs, and 7 SBs. He can increase all of those this year. That would move him up the third base rankings, but will rocket him up the second base rankings!

In my AL only league, I picked him up in during the middle rounds. I already had two third basemans, but with his 2B eligibility coming soon, he will boost that position.

If you haven't had your draft (ummm, better do it soon) then target him for your 2B position in the middle rounds and watch the good stats roll in. If your draft is over, consider getting him in a trade. You might be able to pull off a good deal, as he is only 3B eligible right now. The moment he grabs 2B eligibility, his price should go up.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Reminder - Jaime Garcia

2010-03-30T19:39:00.000-07:00

Well, it's finally official. Jaime Garcia has been named the 5th starter for the St. Louis Cardinals. The choice for the spot was between Garcia and Kyle McClellan. With this announcement, McClellan is bullpen bound. In my opening article for the season, I advised watching this race. So now I'm reminding you again now that the race is over. Go grab Garcia.

Why the attention for a #5 starter? A young pitcher for a good team with good defense. Nice combo. Consider, Garcia was the last person the Cardinals wanted to win the job, not because he's not good, but because of his recovery from Tommy John surgery. Being that they chose him anyway, means he really impressed them. Also, he is adaptable. Huh? Garcia can strike people out (almost a batter per inning), but when conditions/situations call for it, he can get the ground ball outs. Yes, his 'A Game' is good, but so is his 'B Game'. Lastly, the proof is there in his spring numbers: 18.2 innings, 4 Earned Runs, 5 Walks, and 16 Ks.

Being that Garcia is still recovering, you must consider that he will probably have an innings limit. This could hurt at the end of the year, but it should be a nice ride until then. I like his upside and believes he should have a spot in leagues that are at least of average depth. Should be a nice late pick with big upside potential. Keeper leagues should value him a little more.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Tout Wars Style League

2010-03-28T12:11:00.001-07:00

I am participating in a tout wars style auction league run by Fantasy Baseball Trade Market. This league has writers from multiple sites competing in it and I am going to make sure to keep everyone involved as I go through this season.

First thing, for those who don't know the tout wars scoring system here it is.

Standard rotisserie scoring with your basic 5X5 categories runs, RBI, steals, HR, AVG, wins, saves, K's, WHIP, and ERA. we had 260 dollars for the draft and will have a 100 dollar free agent budget to fill out a 28 man roster. starting roster is 2 C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OF, UTL, and 9 P.

Well, the draft was interesting it took 4 hours to complete and it was obvious early that bidding was a little high. My goal originally was to land at least one of the big boppers Hanley or Pujols but this plan quickly dissolved.

Once my plan had crumbled I changed direction and decided to spend the big bucks on Lincecum $38 and Halladay $37 which should give me a nice edge in the pitching categories. I now needed to try and piece together an offense with duck tape and sticks, which sucked but I was pleased with the results.

My roster:

Bay state scout (PFB)

C. Chris iannetta $3

C. Jorge Posada $4

1B. Billy Butler $20

2B. Scott Sizemore $3

3B. Aramis Ramirez $15

SS. Derek Jeter $21

CI. Carlos Pena $14

MI. Elvis Andrus $10

Of. Jacoby Ellsbury $27

Of. Alex Rios $15

Of. Matt Laporta $6

Of. Chris Coghlan $6

Of. Raul Ibanez $10

UTL. Hedeki Matsui $1

P. Tim Lincecum $38

P. Roy Halladay $37

P. James Shields $6

P. Carlos Zambrano $3

P. Roy Oswalt $2

P. Jeff Nieman $1

P. Ervin Santana $1

P. Matt Capps $1

P. Jose Valverde $8

BN. Conor Jackson $1

BN. Nick Johnson $4

BN. Kelly Johnson $1

BN. CJ Wilson $1

BN. Joel Pinero $1

Overall I am pretty balanced on offense with high average guys Jeter and Ramirez and 20 home run caliber players Butler and Rios nice sprinkle of speed with Andrus and Ellsbury leading the way. My weaknesses are most definitely saves and I would say RBI but I think I should be very competitive with this team as is. If I am able to pull off a couple solid deals I think I could win this thing but only time will tell.

I will update what is going on for me as I represent the PFB in this league. I will do a weekly article to fill everyone in on my free agent moves and possible trades and keep you all informed of my position in the standings.

Bay State Scout

(bay_state_scout@comcast.net)

Sleeper Ace - Part 2

2010-03-28T06:15:00.000-07:00

Jake Westbrook, SP, Cleveland Indians, did not throw a pitch last year in the majors. Tommy John surgery will do that to you. But now over a year and a half has gone by since the surgery and Westbrook is ready to go.

What can we expect? Well, before surgery he was a 15 win guy, his ERA was around 4.00 (some years better, some worse), and he struck out about 1 batter every 2 innings. I think Westbrook can keep his ERA around 4.00, the strikeouts will probably be around the same clip, but the wins is where we might see a little dip. Cleveland is not bad, but they were a little better when Westbrook was last pitching. Still, I'm seeing value.

Westbrook looks to be the opening day starter (Staff 'Ace'), which cuts both ways: On one hand, it shows that the Indians like what they see (plus Westbrook says he is feeling good). On the other hand, as the opening day starter, it is going to pit him against all the other teams aces. This could end up with him having a few losses out of the gate until the rotations start to mix.

In any event, I like Westbrook as a late round sleeper in H2H point leagues and a potential waiver wire pickup in deep roto leagues. When healthy, he is a workhorse (200+ innings), and he could do that this year. The team around him is not bad, but the division is competitive. I like him for 13 Wins, 4.10 ERA, and around 100 Ks. I also believe that the more he pitches, the stronger he will get. So if he is available after the draft, watch his starts closely. He is not a top tier starter, but could absolutely give some value to your fantasy team in deeper leagues.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Heyward Earns Starting Gig

2010-03-26T21:01:00.000-07:00

Scout Hoffman (@hoffybiesbol) www.Profantasybaseball.com seniorbeisbol@gmail.com Today there was news out of the Atlanta Braves camp that top prospect Jason Heyward will start the year as the everyday rightfielder. Heyward is a top prospect that has a very bright future. Standing 6'4, 240, he certainly looks the part. Drafted in the first round, 14th overall, in the 2007 he certainly has the pedigree, but will he be relevant in fantasy circles this year? Hewyard has spent the last two years burning through the Braves' system, delivering five category goodness. In less than 900 ABs, he has a line of .318 AVG/164 R/29 HR/125 RBI/26 SB. There is no reason not to see 30/30 upside in him... someday. Some scouts are calling him a 'once in a decade' talent, or the next Justin Upton. While those expectations could be proven true, keep in mind Heyward is only 20 years old. Before you go drafting Heyward in the first round, be sure to take a look at the history books. Only five players have ever driven in 100 runs at age 20, five have had more than 200 hits, six have hit more than 25 homers, and only ten have scored over 100 runs. I fully expect Heyward to become a top pick in the next few years, but temper those expectations for this year. I see him having a year similar to Justin Upton at age 20, but with a few more steals and a full seasons worth of ABs. .274 AVG/79R/18 HR/77 RBI/14 SB seems to be a reasonable expectation. His 219 ADP will likely go down now that he is assured to start the year with the big club, but unless you are playing in a keeper league, be sure not to reach to early for this young star. He is a decent OF3 or an above average OF4.

B.H.L. - Matt Harrison

2010-03-26T04:45:00.000-07:00

Big, hard throwing, and a lefty. This is a basic criteria that teams like to see in a pitcher. Clearly, not everyone who meet this criteria works out, but it's a nice place to start. With this in mind, let's answer a couple of questions about Texas pitcher, Matt Harrison.

First, is he big? Yes. AT 6'4" and 240, that would qualify him in my book as big.

Second, is he hard throwing? This spring he has reached 97 on the gun. So again, yes.

Third, is he a lefty? Being that he throws the ball with his left hand, the answer is yes.

Fourth, will he be worth anything to my fantasy team? This is the difficult question. Last year he wasn't so hot (I'm being nice). He started 11 games, had a 6.11 ERA, and 34 Ks in 63 innings. Nothing of interest here. However, he was only 23 years old. So why look at him now? Well, this spring he has been fantastic. So far this spring, Harrison has pitched 9 innings, given up 2 runs, and has 10 Ks to only 1 walk. Very nice. Being that he is only 24, maybe he's turned the corner. After all, he does meet the initial criteria we talked about. So to answer the fourth question, yes, he will be worth something to your fantasy team (or at least he can be worth something).

Last, where should I draft him? Here is the beauty part. You ask people who Matt Harrison is and you will get blank stares. No one knows him (not that he has given anyone much reason to know him), so he should be available late in your draft. With a nice fastball, and some good strikeout number (not to mention pitching for a strong offensive team), he could be a nice sleeper. The one problem with Harrison is that if he pitches poorly, then Tommy Hunter will take his spot as soon as Hunter returns from his injury. Harrison will probably have to pitch well to keep his place in the rotation. With all that said though, we are still looking at a low risk/high reward type player.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Sleeper Ace - Part 1

2010-03-24T10:43:00.000-07:00

Every year we have pitchers who are coming back from Tommy John elbow surgery. The question always is, how good will they be? Some come back strong, others fade. Let's take a look at Shaun Marcum, SP, Toronto Blue Jays.

Shaun Marcum had Tommy John surgery in 2008. He did not pitch at all in 2009 as he was recovering. Now recovered, what will we get? To find out (no one knows for sure, but let's speculate a little), we need to look at a few things:

First, how good was he before surgery? In 2007, his first full year in the majors, he put up a 4.13 ERA, 12 wins (6 losses), and 122 Ks in 159 innings. Not bad at all for a young pitcher in his first full season. In 2008, before he got hurt, he had a 3.95 ERA, 123 Ks, in 151 innings. Nice improvement. All in all, he was a good pitcher with all signs pointing to him getting better as he gained experience/maturity.

Second, how old is he? Marcum is 28. His young age is a huge positive as there is a difference between a 35 year old coming back from TJ surgery and a 20 something. At this age, Marcum can recover fully from the surgery and have time to get to where he was and beyond.

Lastly, how does the team view him? It was announced on Monday that Marcum was going to be the opening day starter. They must view him as healthy and pitching well. I guess they like that he has only given up one hit in 5 innings so far this spring. To be fair, they have a fairly inexperienced staff, so Marcum, with his experience before his injury, has a leg up. Still it's a good sign.

So when we put this all together, what do we get? We get a nice pitcher that won't be targeted very much on draft day. Yes a sleeper ace. When a guy disappears for a year (due to injury or whatever) he drops off of a lot people's radar. That is going to be the case with Marcum. But, now that he's healthy, he should not be overlooked. He has shown that when he is healthy, he can pitch very well in the majors. I think a 4.00 ERA. 130 Ks, and double digit wins is well within reason for him this year. Remember, it's picks like this, late in the draft, that really make or break a fantasy team.

-Scout Monkey

( scout_monkey@gmx.com)

Early Draft Reaches

2010-03-23T17:16:00.000-07:00

Scout Hoffman (@hoffybeisbol) www.profantasybaseball.com seniorbeisbol@gmail.com Take a look at any draft and you will find a fair amount of reaches and steals. When you look back on your draft it is okay to have a reach or two on your roster, but you would much rather have more steals than reaches. A reach is when a player is drafted much earlier than his value would suggest he should be. There are occasions when reaching for a player is not a bad thing or cannot be avoided. If you are stuck on the turn (last or first pick) of a serpentine draft you will probably have to reach a few times to avoid being left out of a run on a certain position. Certain keeper leagues are okay to reach in as well. If your league has restraints on who you can keep (i.e, top players cannot be kept, or players are kept in the round they are drafted in for next year) you may want to reach for a young player on the upswing later on in your draft. As with any fantasy advice, it will not apply to every league. Look at your league settings, and know your leaguemates before heeding any advice. I will take a look at some draft reaches today, and follow that up with some players you might be able to steal in your draft later this week. Jimmy Rollins (ADP - 20) / J-Roll has seen his average drop nearly .50 over the past two seasons and his steals last year dipped to a five season low of 31. Rollins turns 32 this year and by no means is washed up, but I no longer see him as a second round pick. Being in the Philadelphia lineup will help conserve a chunk of his value. Last year he had the lowest OBP (.296) of any player who scored 100 runs (fun fact, the second lowest belongs to teammate Shane Victorino). He should still deliver a solid across the board line, but there are much better options as a number two pick. Jason Bay (ADP - 26) / Jason Bay blossomed in his 200 game stint with Boston. Unfortunately for Sox fans and Bay owners, he no longer has the Green Monster to take aim at summer long. This year Bay will be roaming the spacious outfield in New York's CITI field and because of this, Bay's power numbers will likely take a hit. In 2009 Bay was in the middle of a lineup that was third in the league in runs scored and outscored the Mets by over 200 runs. With Reyes and Beltran iffy for the beginning of the season it would be a stretch to assume Bay will come close to the 103/36/119 stat line from last year. With numbers closer to 90/25/95/.265/9 Bay does not stick out in a talent rich outfield class this year and certainly does not warrant a third round pick. Manny Ramirez (ADP - 61) / Which Manny are you going to get, the pre-steroid bust masher averaging an HR every 13.4 ABs or the cheater who averaged an HR every 23.1 ABs? Guess which owner is going to use a 6th or 7th round pick to find out? Not me. There is too much baggage and too many unanswered questions surrounding a guy who has talked about retirement, playing in Japan, and playing for five more years in LA all in the past month. When he is on and interested he is one of the best hitters in the game, but the early rounds of a draft are not a time to take major gambles. Pass on Manny and let some other owner deal with a summer of 'Manny being Manny.' Later this week I will discuss a few late round steals that may help you in your upcoming draft.